Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Predictions September 20th 2025

Cubs vs Reds Picks and Predictions — September 20, 2025

The Cincinnati Reds (78-76) have stormed back into the Wild Card race with three straight wins, including back-to-back victories over the Chicago Cubs (88-66). After Hunter Greene’s one-hit shutout on Thursday, Spencer Steer powered the Reds with two homers and three RBIs in Friday’s 7-4 win.

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Cincinnati sits just two games behind the New York Mets for the final NL Wild Card spot with eight games left, while Chicago has already clinched a playoff berth. Saturday’s matchup at Great American Ball Park pits Zack Littell (9-8, 3.86 ERA) against Javier Assad (3-1, 4.23 ERA) in what could be a pivotal game for the Reds’ postseason hopes.

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The Cubs Can Win If…

The Cubs need Javier Assad to give them length against a surging Reds lineup. While Assad has been used in both relief and starts, he enters this game with three straight wins, including 2 1/3 scoreless innings versus Tampa Bay in his last outing.

Offensively, Chicago remains dangerous. Matt Shaw belted his 12th homer Friday, while Dansby Swanson added another long ball. The Cubs rank 5th in MLB with 207 home runs and are 3rd in stolen bases (154), giving them multiple ways to manufacture offense.

If Assad keeps the game close and the Cubs’ bats continue to produce extra-base power, Chicago can bounce back in this series.

The Reds Can Win If…

Cincinnati’s path to victory runs through Zack Littell, who has quietly dominated the Cubs. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA in seven career appearances against Chicago. Since joining the Reds in August, he’s given them consistency, posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.

The offense has been equally important. Spencer Steer carried the load Friday with two homers, while Elly De La Cruz snapped his long drought with a solo shot. The Reds now have four players with 15+ home runs this season, showing balance throughout the order.

With the Reds ranking 7th in batting average against (.236), their pitching has kept them competitive. If Littell executes and the lineup maintains its recent power surge, the Reds could stretch their winning streak to four.

Key MLB Betting Trends

The Lean

Model Projection: Cubs 5, Reds 4
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-112)
Total Lean: Over 9.0

Chicago’s power bats and top-10 pitching staff give them a slight edge, but Cincinnati’s urgency in the Wild Card chase makes this a dangerous spot for the Cubs.

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