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Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers ALDS Game 4 Betting Preview
Game 4 of the ALDS between the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers takes place Wednesday afternoon at Comerica Park, with first pitch scheduled for 3:08 PM ET on FS1. Seattle leads the best-of-five series 2-1 and can punch its ticket to the ALCS with one more win. Detroit must respond at home to stay alive. The latest odds show the Mariners at -106 on the moneyline, while the Tigers are -111. The runline sits at Seattle -1.5 (+155) and Detroit +1.5 (-189), with the total at 8.5 runs (O -105 / U -115).
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Line Movement and Odds
This Game 4 matchup opened with Detroit as a slight -120 favorite but has since tightened as sharp money moved toward Seattle, trimming the line to nearly even. The total opened at 8 and ticked up to 8.5 as public bettors leaned toward the over following an 8-4 Seattle win in Game 3. Roughly 60% of bets are on the Mariners, but 58% of the money sits with Detroit, indicating a slight sharp lean on the Tigers.
Bryce Miller (5.68 ERA) starts for Seattle, while Casey Mize (3.87 ERA) takes the mound for Detroit. Miller’s road ERA jumps to 6.20, a red flag against a contact-heavy Tigers lineup.
“We know what’s at stake,” said Mariners manager Scott Servais. “We have to stay aggressive early and keep pressure on their starters.”
Seattle ranks 3rd in MLB in home runs (238) and 6th in quality starts, while Detroit’s pitching has quietly held opponents to a .240 batting average (10th-best).
Matchup Breakdown
Seattle Mariners Outlook
Seattle flexed its muscle in Game 3, blasting three homers and posting eight runs behind strong starts from Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford. The Mariners are 90-72 overall and 39-42 on the road. Their power is elite — Raleigh leads with 60 home runs, while Eugenio Suárez adds 49. Even with Miller’s inconsistencies, the bullpen’s reliability (9th-fewest blown saves) makes Seattle dangerous in tight games. The key for Seattle: early run support for Miller before turning things over to their setup arms.
Detroit Tigers Outlook
Detroit, 87-75 overall, showed fight despite the Game 3 loss. Spencer Torkelson’s two-run double and Gleyber Torres’ multi-hit effort underline a lineup that can grind out quality at-bats. The Tigers hit .247 as a team this season and ranked 9th in slugging (.413), backed by 198 home runs. Mize’s command will dictate Detroit’s fate. If he keeps the ball down and limits hard contact, the Tigers can force a decisive Game 5.
Injuries and Conditions
| Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|
| RP Andrés Muñoz – Day-to-day (arm fatigue) | SS Javier Báez – Day-to-day (wrist) |
| 1B Ty France – Probable (ankle) | C Jake Rogers – Probable (hamstring) |
| CF Julio Rodríguez – Healthy | SP Casey Mize – Starting |
Weather: Clear skies, temps near 68°F, light 5 mph wind to left-center. Great hitting conditions at Comerica Park.
Best Bets and Prediction
Seattle’s superior power and bullpen depth give them the edge, even with Miller on the mound. Detroit’s lineup makes this a live dog spot, but the Mariners’ experience and long-ball ability tilt the balance. Expect a close, offense-friendly Game 4.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-106)
Projected Final Score: Mariners 5, Tigers 4
Lean: Over 8.5 (-105)
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| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Mariners ML (-106) |
| Confidence Rating | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Mariners 5, Tigers 4 |
| Total Lean | Over 8.5 (-105) |
| Market Split | 60% bets Seattle, 58% money Detroit (sharp lean Tigers) |
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