Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Picks and Predictions May 25th 2025

Astros Look to Clinch Series Over Mariners in Finale

After another resilient bullpen performance and a timely 2-1 victory on Saturday, the Houston Astros will aim to lock down a series win over the Seattle Mariners on Sunday. The four-game set has been a showcase of tight pitching duels and late-game heroics, and the finale looks to be no different.

Houston has won two of the first three games, showing signs of turning things around in the American League West.

Abreu Rebounds in Key Setup Role

Though he’s been lights out for most of the year, Bryan Abreu’s two rough outings have oddly come against the Mariners. After surrendering two runs in Friday’s loss, Abreu bounced back on Saturday with a dominant eighth inning featuring two strikeouts.

“He’s human,” Astros manager Joe Espada said. “He’s really, really good… he came out and handed the ball to [Josh] Hader with a clean inning.”

That set the stage for Hader to earn the save, preserving the slim 2-1 win.

Dive into more late-inning metrics on the MLB Expert Betting Guide.

Colton Gordon Gets His Shot in the Spotlight

The Astros will start Colton Gordon (0-0, 5.59 ERA) on Sunday, making just the third start of his MLB career. Gordon was solid against Tampa Bay last Monday, throwing 5 1/3 innings of three-run ball with seven strikeouts.

While he’s still finding his footing, Gordon has displayed poise and strikeout ability early on. This will be his first career start against Seattle and his first against a division opponent—a valuable measuring stick for the 25-year-old southpaw.

Track his trends and matchup history on the MLB Odds Page.

Mariners Counter With Ace Luis Castillo

Seattle will look to even the series behind Luis Castillo (4-3, 3.20 ERA), who was in vintage form in his last outing, tossing seven shutout innings in a 5-1 win over the White Sox.

• Career vs. Astros: 2-2, 3.27 ERA
• April 8 vs. Astros: 5 shutout innings, 6 Ks (no-decision)

Castillo has long been a go-to stopper for Seattle and carries a strong 3.12 ERA in 30 AL West starts, making him well-suited for this pivotal divisional matchup.

Explore projected prop bets and performance metrics on the MLB Picks Page.

Mariners Still Waiting on Polanco to Snap Slump

Designated hitter Jorge Polanco has been mired in a prolonged slump, hitting just .130 over his past 16 games. His absence from Saturday’s lineup was a mental reset as much as a tactical move, according to manager Dan Wilson.

“Sometimes that’s just baseball. It comes back a little bit,” Wilson said. “He’s been such a solid force for us… just having his name in there has been good.”

Polanco had a blazing start to the season, earning Player of the Week honors (April 21-27) after slugging four homers with eight RBIs in five games.

Mariners Hoping for Offensive Reboot

The lack of production from Polanco mirrors Seattle’s broader offensive inconsistencies. The Mariners have been unable to consistently support their elite pitching staff, which has kept them afloat despite offensive woes.

With Luis Castillo on the mound, the Mariners will again hope for a few clutch at-bats to steal a road win and avoid dropping three of four in Houston.

Catch deeper divisional splits and projected batting order metrics on the MLB Team Page.

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Series Implications for AL West Standings

This Sunday game carries weight in the tightly packed AL West, where every win matters.

• Astros: A win moves Houston closer to .500 and keeps them in striking distance of the division lead.
• Mariners: Winning Sunday would salvage a split and reinforce their place as a division contender.

With Castillo vs. Gordon on the hill, it’s youth vs. experience in what should be a classic pitcher’s duel.

FAQs

Who starts for the Astros on Sunday?
Colton Gordon (0-0, 5.59 ERA), making his third career start and first vs. Seattle.

Who is the Mariners’ starter?
Ace Luis Castillo (4-3, 3.20 ERA), who pitched seven shutout innings in his last outing.

How has Bryan Abreu performed this season?
He’s been excellent, though all five of his earned runs in 2024 have come vs. Seattle.

Why was Jorge Polanco benched Saturday?
He’s hitting just .130 over his last 16 games and got the day off to reset mentally.

What’s the series record so far?
Houston leads the four-game series 2-1 heading into Sunday’s finale.

Where can I find odds, stats, and betting tips?
Visit the MLB Picks and MLB Odds pages.