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Yankees vs Twins Picks and Predictions — September 16, 2025
The New York Yankees look to rebound after a flat performance in Monday’s opener, when they managed only two hits in a 7-0 loss to the Minnesota Twins.
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New York (83-67) remains in a tight AL wild-card race but slipped further behind the division-leading Blue Jays. Minnesota (66-84) is out of the playoff picture but showed life behind Simeon Woods Richardson’s 11 strikeouts in the shutout win.
Track the AL playoff race 👉 Updated MLB standings
Yankees Can Win If…
- Cam Schlittler delivers. The rookie righty (3-3, 3.05 ERA) has been steady and is coming off six strong innings against Detroit. If he keeps the Twins quiet, the Yankees’ bats should do enough.
- Aaron Judge breaks out. Judge went 0-for-1 with three walks Monday, stuck on 48 HRs. He has 12 career bombs vs. Minnesota and remains the X-factor.
- The lineup resets quickly. New York leads MLB in slugging (.453) and home runs (254). One big swing from Judge, Juan Soto, or Gleyber Torres could turn momentum back their way.
Twins Can Win If…
- Zebby Matthews steadies himself. The righty (4-5, 5.06 ERA) was roughed up by the Angels last week but has shown flashes. If he avoids giving up early homers, Minnesota can compete.
- The offense stays hot. Brooks Lee and Austin Martin combined for six RBIs Monday. Add Byron Buxton (31 HRs) and Kody Clemens (3 HRs last Friday), and the Twins have dangerous bats.
- They keep Judge contained. Walking Judge three times worked in the opener. Replicating that approach could frustrate New York’s lineup.
Key Betting Trends
| Category | Yankees | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 83-67 (2nd AL East) | 66-84 (4th AL Central) |
| Form (Last 10) | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Starting Pitcher | Cam Schlittler (3.05 ERA) | Zebby Matthews (5.06 ERA) |
| Last Meeting | MIN 7, NYY 0 (Sept. 15) |
The Leans
Main Pick: Yankees ML (-171)
Projected Score: Yankees 6, Twins 4
- Moneyline Angle: Yankees’ power bats and Schlittler’s form give them the edge.
- Total Runs Angle: Over 9.0 (-101). Both lineups have home run threats, and my model projects 10 total runs.
Best Bet Box
Best Bet: Yankees ML (-171)
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Judge is due, and New York needs this game. 👉 Today’s top MLB picks
