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Astros vs Yankees Prediction: Can Hunter Brown Outduel New York’s Rookie?
The Houston Astros open a three-game set against the New York Yankees on Friday, August 8, 2025, at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is set for 7:05 PM ET, with coverage on APLTV.
Both teams have hit a midseason skid — Houston is 9-16 since July 6, while New York has lost 13 of its last 21 — but the Astros still lead the AL West at 64-51. The Yankees, at 61-54, are clinging to postseason hopes, sitting 6.5 games out of the AL East lead.
Houston is a slight favorite at -119 on the moneyline, with New York at +100. The run line is Astros -1.5 (+144) / Yankees +1.5 (-172), and the total is 8.0 runs (O -113 / U -107).
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Astros Can Win If…
Hunter Brown keeps rolling. The right-hander owns a 2.47 ERA and has allowed one run or fewer in 13 starts this season, including seven strong innings last Friday in Boston. He’s 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA in three career starts against New York.
Offensively, Houston has been elite in contact hitting, ranking 2nd in MLB in batting average (.258) and 7th in on-base percentage (.321). Carlos Correa’s recent surge (.346 since returning to Houston) and Christian Walker’s three homers in his last six games give the lineup depth and pop.
“His body’s just not getting as beat up [at third base],” manager Joe Espada said about Correa’s improved play. “So I’m going to keep him over there.”
If Houston stays disciplined at the plate and maintains its recent RISP efficiency (12-for-32 vs. Miami), Brown should have enough run support.
From Breaking News To Expert Takes, It’s All On Gambling News.
Yankees Can Win If…
Aaron Judge and the power bats deliver. The Yankees lead MLB in slugging (.447) and have already launched 182 home runs. Judge is batting .339 with 37 homers, and Paul Goldschmidt’s clutch pinch-hit homer Wednesday snapped a five-game skid.
Rookie Cam Schlittler (1-2, 4.58 ERA) makes his first career start vs. Houston. New York’s staff ranks 3rd in batting average against (.230), and their bullpen’s 16 blown saves (5th fewest) suggest they can hold a lead if they get one.
“We gotta dig ourselves out here… I’m steadfast and believe we have a great run in us,” said manager Aaron Boone.
The key will be jumping on Brown early — something few teams have managed this year.
Key MLB Betting Trends
| Trend Type | Houston Astros | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline Form | 4-6 in last 10 games | 4-6 in last 10 games |
| Run Line Record | Covered in 5 of last 7 wins | Failed to cover in 6 of last 8 losses |
| Total (O/U) | Over is 6-3-1 in last 10 games | Over is 7-3 in last 10 home games |
| Head-to-Head | Won 4 of last 6 vs Yankees | Lost last 3 home series vs Astros |
The Lean
Houston has the edge in both starting pitching and contact hitting. Brown’s ability to neutralize big bats combined with the Astros’ recent improvement in clutch situations makes them the play.
Prediction: Astros 5, Yankees 4
Best Bet: Astros ML (-119)
Bonus Lean: Over 8.0 (-113)
See how today’s matchup fits into the bigger picture by checking out all recent MLB results and box scores.
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