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Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees ALDS Game 4 Betting Preview
The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees square off at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday night for a pivotal Game 4 of the ALDS. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 PM ET on FS1. Toronto leads the series 2-1 and can secure a trip to the ALCS with a win, while New York looks to force a decisive Game 5. The Yankees are listed as -186 favorites on the moneyline, with the Blue Jays at +157.
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Line Movement and Odds
New York opened around -175 and has ticked up to -186 as public and sharp money align on the Yankees to even the series. Roughly 70% of bets and 68% of money are on New York’s side, pushing the Blue Jays from +145 to +157. The total has seen minor movement upward from 8 to 8.5 with light juice to the over, mainly due to bullpen fatigue and humid conditions that could aid hitters.
Louis Varland (2.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) will start for Toronto against Cam Schlittler (2.96 ERA), a rookie righty who has emerged as a stabilizing force in New York’s rotation.
“We’ve been resilient all season,” said Yankees manager Aaron Boone. “This group knows how to respond with our backs to the wall.”
The Yankees boast the league’s top slugging rate (.455) and most home runs (274), while Toronto counters with the highest team batting average in MLB (.265) — a true clash between power and contact.
Matchup Breakdown
Toronto Blue Jays Outlook
Toronto fell 9-6 in Game 3 but remains one win away from advancing. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. powered the offense with a home run and two RBIs, while Ernie Clement went 4-for-4. The Jays’ balance at the plate is elite — they rank first in batting average and second in on-base percentage. Louis Varland will be key; his command and ground-ball rate could neutralize the Yankees’ power threats. For Toronto to close out the series, they’ll need early run support and clean defense behind Varland.
New York Yankees Outlook
The Yankees responded emphatically in Game 3, led by Aaron Judge’s four RBIs and a home run. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Cody Bellinger added key extra-base hits as the Bronx Bombers lived up to their name. The Yankees are 94-68 overall and dominant at home, leading MLB in slugging and OBP. Cam Schlittler’s consistency and the bullpen’s depth (2nd in opponents’ batting average) give New York the tools to force a Game 5 — especially if their power bats stay hot.
Injuries and Conditions
| Toronto Blue Jays | New York Yankees |
|---|---|
| SS Bo Bichette – Probable (hamstring) | OF Giancarlo Stanton – Day-to-day (ankle) |
| RP Jordan Romano – Out (elbow) | RP Clay Holmes – Probable (forearm) |
| SP Louis Varland – Starting | SP Cam Schlittler – Starting |
Weather: Light rain expected at first pitch, temps around 63°F, slight wind blowing to right-center (8 mph). Potential slick field conditions may impact defense and grip for pitchers.
Best Bets and Prediction
The Yankees are in a must-win situation and have the home field, lineup depth, and power advantage to get it done. Varland’s efficiency is impressive, but New York’s relentless offense against right-handers (.262 average, .475 slugging) is hard to fade. Expect a tighter, lower-scoring battle than Game 3 as both starters settle in early.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-186)
Projected Final Score: Yankees 5, Blue Jays 3
Lean: Under 8.5 (-102)
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| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Yankees ML (-186) |
| Confidence Rating | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Yankees 5, Blue Jays 3 |
| Total Lean | Under 8.5 (-102) |
| Market Split | 70% bets Yankees, 68% money Yankees |
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