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Blue Jays vs Yankees Picks and Predictions — September 7, 2025
The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays close out their crucial AL East series Sunday afternoon at Yankee Stadium, with both teams battling for the top spot in the division. Toronto enters at 82-60, holding a three-game edge over New York (79-63).
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The Yankees evened the series Saturday with a 3-1 victory, powered by strong pitching and timely defense, after Toronto opened with a 7-1 win Friday. With the standings tight and playoff implications looming, every inning in this finale matters. For a look at how both teams have performed lately, review the most recent MLB game results.
Opening odds: Yankees -153 (moneyline), Blue Jays +130, Total 8.5 runs.
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Yankees Can Win If…
Max Fried looks like he’s back in ace form. After enduring his worst stretch of the year in July, the lefty has bounced back with a 0.90 ERA across his last three starts. Fried dominated Houston last week, allowing just one run on four hits with 15 ground-ball outs.
The Yankees’ bats remain dangerous, ranking among the league leaders in slugging percentage and home runs. Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Jasson Domínguez give the lineup the power and depth to challenge Scherzer early.
“Every game’s important … tomorrow’s a huge one into an off-day. We know what’s at stake,” manager Aaron Boone said.
If Fried continues his dominant stretch and the Bronx Bombers get another long ball or two, New York can close the gap in the standings.
Blue Jays Can Win If…
Toronto turns to veteran Max Scherzer, who returns after back spasms cut short his August 31 outing. He’s 3-0 with a 3.91 ERA over his last four starts and has the experience to thrive in high-pressure division games.
The Blue Jays’ offense has been consistent, led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who’s hitting .520 over his last six games. Bo Bichette remains a spark at the top of the order, though he is nursing a shin bruise suffered on Saturday.
“The opportunities were a little bit less and didn’t get the big hit,” manager John Schneider said of Saturday’s loss.
If Scherzer keeps the game close and Guerrero stays hot, Toronto can grab the series win.
Key MLB Betting Trends
| Category | Yankees | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 79-63 (2nd AL East) | 82-60 (1st AL East) |
| Last 10 Games | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| ERA / Opp Runs | 3.92 / .230 BAA (Fried) | 4.11 / .241 BAA (Scherzer) |
| Series History 2025 | Blue Jays lead 8-5 | Blue Jays lead 8-5 |
The Lean
Model Projection: Yankees 5, Blue Jays 4
Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-153)
Total Lean: Over 8.5
With two future Hall of Fame pitchers squaring off, this game comes down to execution. Fried is red-hot, Scherzer is returning from injury, and both lineups are capable of big innings. The Yankees’ momentum and home-field advantage make them the pick, with the over worth a look given the power bats on both sides. For more insights, head to our MLB Betting Predictions hub.
September baseball is here — playoff races are heating up. Explore more expert picks here →
