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Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions — September 11, 2025
The Colorado Rockies limp into San Diego with MLB’s worst record, while the San Diego Padres try to keep pace in the NL Wild Card hunt.
For all updates and final scores, check the MLB game results page.
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Opening Odds: Padres -239, Rockies +199, Total 8.5
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The Rockies Can Win If…
Colorado needs power at the plate to offset its weak pitching. Slugger Hunter Goodman (30 HR, .500+ SLG) gives the Rockies a chance to score quickly, while Tyler Freeman (.280 AVG) and Mickey Moniak (19 HR) can provide support.
Starter McCade Brown will need his best outing of the year, as the Rockies’ bullpen has a combined ERA over 6.00 (worst in MLB). If Brown can limit damage early, and Goodman delivers a long ball, Colorado could pull the upset.
The Padres Can Win If…
San Diego’s formula is elite pitching + timely hitting. The Padres rank 3rd in ERA (3.66) and 1st in opponent batting average (.225). Starter Randy Vásquez (3.91 ERA) provides stability against a Rockies lineup that ranks bottom three in runs scored.
Offensively, the Padres lean on Manny Machado (23 HR, 84 RBI) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (power/speed combo) to jumpstart their attack. If they score early, their bullpen can lock it down.
Key Betting Trends
| Category | Colorado Rockies | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Record (2025) | 40-106 | 79-67 |
| Last 10 Games | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| Streak | Lost 5 | Lost 2 |
| Home/Road Record | 17-59 (Road) | 44-27 (Home) |
| Team ERA Rank | 30th (6.03) | 3rd (3.66) |
| Batting Average | .238 (28th) | .253 (6th) |
The Lean
Model Projection: Padres 6, Rockies 3
Pick: Padres -239 (moneyline)
Runline Lean: Padres -1.5 (-117)
Total Lean: Over 8.5 (-115)
San Diego’s pitching advantage is too big to ignore, and their offense should do enough against McCade Brown. The Rockies are a fade until further notice.
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