San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners Picks and Predictions May 16th 2025

Padres’ Stephen Kolek Aims to Silence Former Team as Mariners Visit San Diego

When Stephen Kolek takes the mound Friday night at Petco Park, it’ll be more than just his third MLB start—it’ll be a chance to prove himself against the organization that let him go.

Kolek, a Rule 5 pick from the Seattle Mariners in December 2023, will pitch for the San Diego Padres in the opener of a pivotal Rivalry Weekend series. With 14 1/3 scoreless innings in his first two career starts and a complete-game shutout already on his résumé, Kolek has gone from relative unknown to one of the league’s most intriguing rookie arms.

Looking to bet on Kolek’s next outing or the Padres’ odds to win the division? Check our MLB Odds Page.

A Former Mariner Making a Major League Statement

Kolek’s recent numbers have been borderline historic. In just his second career start, the 26-year-old right-hander went the distance with a five-hit shutout at Coors Field in a 21-0 win over the Colorado Rockies—marking the first complete-game shutout by a visiting pitcher at Coors since Clayton Kershaw in 2013.

Just a week earlier, he tossed 5 1/3 scoreless innings against Pittsburgh, looking just as composed and efficient.

“He had some struggles, but we saw the stuff,” said Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla. “The plan all year was: if he makes it through, this guy’s going to be a starter.”

Kolek’s arsenal has impressed early: he works off a 95+ mph sinker and complements it with a sharp sweeper, cutter, and a deceptive changeup. Most impressive has been his pitch efficiency—he used just 104 pitches to complete nine innings in Colorado.

Mariners Regret Letting Kolek Slip?

Kolek was drafted by Seattle but never cracked their big-league roster before San Diego selected him in the Rule 5 Draft. After posting a 5.21 ERA in 42 relief appearances last season for the Padres, he appeared destined for a bullpen role until an injury sidelined him midseason.

Flash forward to now, and Kolek is staking his claim to a permanent rotation role—one the Mariners might wish they had carved out for him.

Seattle’s Logan Evans (1-1, 3.60 ERA) will take the mound Friday night for his third MLB start. The 24-year-old rookie last pitched Saturday against Toronto, tossing five innings of three-run ball before exiting with a 3-2 lead—only to see the bullpen give up the game.

Evans’ performance has been solid if not spectacular. He’s shown the ability to generate ground balls but hasn’t consistently missed bats. The matchup against San Diego’s aggressive lineup could expose command issues if he’s not pinpoint sharp.

Padres Continue Chase in the NL West

At 28-17, the Padres trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by just a half-game in the NL West, thanks to a balanced attack and improved pitching depth. With Yu Darvish expected to return soon, Kolek’s window to prove himself as a starter may be narrowing, but so far he’s done nothing but demand a longer look.

San Diego is 16-5 at home and has won six of their last seven. The offense is clicking behind Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth, and Xander Bogaerts, while the bullpen has locked down late innings behind Robert Suarez and Wandy Peralta.

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Mariners Limp Into West Coast Swing

Seattle, despite a 1-5 homestand, remains in first place in the AL West, clinging to a slim one-game lead over Houston and Texas. They were swept by Toronto and then lost two of three to the Yankees—capped off by Aaron Judge’s eighth-inning game-winner on Wednesday.

Seattle manager Dan Wilson acknowledged the frustration: “We hit some balls hard in situations and came up shy. The close ones are tough.”

The Mariners’ offense continues to be up-and-down, with Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh providing sporadic power, but the lineup lacks depth and has struggled with runners in scoring position.

They’ll need more consistent output to survive a 10-game road swing that includes San Diego, Houston, and Washington.

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Key Stats and Trends

• Kolek: 2-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.84 WHIP through 14.1 IP
• Evans: 1-1, 3.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP in two MLB starts
• Padres are 16-5 at Petco Park in 2024
• Mariners are 8-12 on the road this season
• San Diego ranks top 5 in the NL in team batting average and OBP
• Seattle ranks 26th in MLB in team batting average (.224)
• Kolek’s complete-game shutout was the first at Coors Field by a visiting pitcher since 2013

FAQs

Who is starting for the Padres and Mariners on Friday?
Stephen Kolek (Padres) vs. Logan Evans (Mariners), both rookies.

How many innings has Kolek pitched without allowing a run?
He’s tossed 14 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings to begin his MLB starting career.

Was Kolek part of the Mariners’ organization?
Yes, Seattle drafted him, but he was selected by the Padres in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft.

Where do the Padres stand in the NL West?
They are just half a game behind the Dodgers for first place.

What has been the Mariners’ biggest issue lately?
Lack of clutch hitting and inconsistent bullpen support.

Where can I find picks and betting advice for this game?
Check our MLB Picks Page for predictions, odds breakdowns, and best bets.