Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions August 25th 2025

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Cal Raleigh Powers the M’s in Vedder Cup Clash with Padres

In a spectacle straight out of a movie, Cal Raleigh shattered two MLB records with a second-inning homer during an electrifying 11–4 win over the Athletics—fueling a T-Mobile Park crowd that chanted “MVP” long after his curtain call. Now, the Seattle Mariners (70–61) prepare for the first game of the inaugural Vedder Cup series against the San Diego Padres (74–57), a matchup defining contenders’ résumés—and playoff resumes. A peek at the most recent MLB outcomes shows just how razor-close the standings remain.

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Opening Odds

  • Moneyline: Mariners –129 | Padres +109
  • Total (O/U): 8.0 runs

The Padres Can Win If…

  • Their bullpen locks down late innings — San Diego’s strength in relief pitching compensates for rotation volatility and carries them in tight games.
  • Big bats come alive — Despite yesterday’s dud, this lineup features above-average bats like Machado and Cronenworth primed for impact.
  • They harness home run power — Seattle’s T-Mobile sits in the top tiers for power numbers, but Padres can push back with clutch hits of their own.

“We’re tied for our division lead and expect to go win it,” said manager Mike Shildt after their recent setback.

The Mariners Can Win If…

  • Raleigh’s MVP production continues — Leading MLB with 49 homers as a catcher, he’s the spark both on and off-field.
  • Bryce Miller regains his form — The right-hander has looked sharp against San Diego before (2.0 IP scoreless in July), and his resurgence would cement Seattle’s rotation.
  • Momentum stays on home turf — Seattle swept this rivalry in May and now look to reclaim the field—and the trophy.

Key MLB Betting Trends

CategoryMarinersPadres
Season TrajectoryRiding a potent offense surgeStrong bullpen, inconsistent lineup
Starting PitchersMiller (5.87 ERA)Sears (4.94 ERA, better vs SEA)
Offensive FirepowerRaleigh leading league homersBalanced, but streaky scoring
Recent MomentumBig homers, impressive winsRiding a winning streak until Sunday

The Lean

Seattle brings the continuity, fan energy, and explosive bat of Cal Raleigh—along with home-field advantage in the Vedder Cup debut. Expect the Mariners to channel that heat into moving one step closer to AL playoff contention.

Projected Score: Mariners 5, Padres 3
Pick: Mariners Moneyline
Total Lean: Under 8.0 Runs


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