Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions September 1st 2025

Mariners vs Rays Picks and Predictions — September 1, 2025

The Seattle Mariners hit the road to face the Tampa Bay Rays in the opener of a three-game series at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Seattle (73-64) holds the final AL wild-card spot and snapped a seven-game road skid with a 4-2 win over Cleveland on Sunday. Tampa Bay (67-69) is pushing to stay alive in the playoff race and rides a three-game winning streak after sweeping Washington.

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The Mariners are slight favorites at -119, the Rays are +100, and the total is set at 8.5 runs. For more perspective on both clubs’ momentum, check the latest MLB game results.

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Mariners Can Win If…

Luis Castillo delivers a steady start and their sluggers stay hot. Castillo (8-7, 3.75 ERA) has pitched well against the Rays in his career, going 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA across six starts. Seattle leads with power, ranking third in MLB in home runs (195).

Cal Raleigh continues to be the centerpiece, leading the league with 50 homers, while Eugenio Suárez (42 HR) and Julio Rodríguez provide critical lineup depth.

“We’ve just got to finish the game … we’re just missing the one hit or one pitch,” Raleigh said of Seattle’s recent close losses.

If Castillo avoids the big inning and Seattle’s bats connect early, the Mariners should control the opener.

Rays Can Win If…

Shane Baz rebounds from a rough August and their offense carries momentum from Washington. Baz (8-11, 5.19 ERA) went 0-4 with a 7.92 ERA last month and now faces a Mariners team that punishes mistakes.

Josh Lowe has heated up, adding two homers, a double, and a triple over the weekend, while Brandon Lowe provided the big blow with a grand slam Sunday. Tampa Bay also thrives on speed, leading MLB with 172 stolen bases.

“It’s huge just being able to produce for the guys … it’s a big stepping stone for me to build on,” Josh Lowe said after his strong weekend.

If Baz steadies and the Rays’ offense keeps firing, they can grab the opener at home.

Key MLB Betting Trends

The Lean

Pick: Mariners -119
Projected Final Score: Mariners 5, Rays 4

Seattle has the edge with Castillo over Baz, especially given Tampa Bay’s starter struggles. The Rays’ lineup is hot, but the Mariners’ power bats and steadier pitching should give them the edge. The over 8.5 also has value with both lineups capable of producing extra-base hits.

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