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Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Game 1 Preview
The American League Championship Series opens Sunday night at Rogers Centre as the Seattle Mariners visit the Toronto Blue Jays. Both teams enter with momentum after winning their Division Series and now stand four victories away from the World Series.
The Sharpest Picks in the Game
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Line Movement and Odds
Game 1 of the 2025 MLB postseason sees the Blue Jays as home favorites with Kevin Gausman (3.59 ERA) on the mound against Bryce Miller (5.68 ERA) for Seattle. First pitch is set for 8:03 PM ET on FOX under the closed Rogers Centre roof.
The market opened Toronto at −150, but sharp action pushed the line to −165, reflecting faith in Gausman’s command and the Jays’ elite lineup.
Current odds:
- Moneyline: Toronto −165 / Seattle +140
- Run Line: Toronto −1.5 (+131) / Seattle +1.5 (−156)
- Total: Over 7.5 (−120) / Under 7.5 (−101)
Track live adjustments on the MLB scores and odds board.
Matchup Breakdown
Seattle (90-72) fought its way into the ALCS on the strength of consistent starting pitching and timely home runs. The Mariners ranked third in MLB in home runs (238) and seventh in OBP (.319), driven by the power of Julio Rodríguez, Josh Naylor, and Jorge Polanco. Their pitching staff ranked 12th in ERA (3.87) and sixth in quality starts, reflecting stability across the rotation.
Right-hander Bryce Miller takes the ball after an uneven regular season but has strong strikeout potential. Seattle’s bullpen remains a key weapon, featuring multiple arms with sub-3.00 ERAs in October.
Toronto (94-68) was one of baseball’s most consistent offensive teams all season. The Blue Jays led MLB in batting average (.265), ranked second in OBP (.331), and third in doubles (294). Their balanced approach, headlined by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, has kept pressure on opposing pitchers throughout the postseason.
Gausman, Toronto’s ace, posted a 1.06 WHIP this season and excels at limiting traffic on the bases. His matchup against Seattle’s power bats will define the opener.
Injuries and Conditions
Seattle Mariners
- RP Matt Brash (elbow) remains out.
- DH Mitch Garver (knee) day-to-day but expected to play.
- No weather impact with roof closed at Rogers Centre.
Toronto Blue Jays
- RP Yimi García (forearm) questionable for Game 1.
- 3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa (hand) probable.
- Healthy core lineup expected.
Full roster insights and postseason stats available on the MLB teams page.
Best Bets and Prediction
Toronto’s offensive depth and Gausman’s control advantage give the home team the early edge. Seattle’s bullpen may keep it close, but the Blue Jays’ lineup should create steady pressure across nine innings.
- Moneyline lean: Toronto −165 — Gausman’s consistency and Toronto’s on-base skill tilt the opener.
- Total lean: Over 7.5 (−120) — both lineups project for timely power, and Miller’s fly-ball tendencies elevate risk.
- Projected Final: Toronto 5, Seattle 3.
For postseason betting strategy and bankroll management, review the expert betting guide.
Betting Summary
| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Toronto ML (−165) |
| Confidence Rating | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Blue Jays 5 – Mariners 3 |
| Total Lean | Over 7.5 (−120) |
| Market Split | 60% bets Toronto, 57% money Over (public and sharp agreement) |
Handicappers and Service Plays
Toronto has won five straight at home, while Seattle is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as an underdog. Consensus handicappers back the Blue Jays ML and Over, noting their balanced offense and bullpen reliability.
Compare expert postseason picks on the MLB picks page and track verified performer standings on the best handicappers leaderboard.
ScoresAndStats Handicappers and Picks
The ScoresAndStats Handicappers Leaderboard is the ultimate postseason betting resource — tracking verified expert records, ROI, and hot streaks across every sport, including MLB playoffs. With every pick timestamped and performance-verified, bettors can identify which analysts are thriving in October’s pressure-packed environment.
Smart baseball bettors use this data to understand market inefficiencies — such as fading inflated public favorites or targeting bullpen mismatches in elimination games like Brewers–Cubs. The Service Plays section offers premium picks and player prop breakdowns from top-performing cappers, many specializing in MLB postseason betting strategy.
Whether you’re hunting totals value, live-bet opportunities, or NLCS futures, ScoresAndStats gives you the analytical edge to profit when the stakes are highest.
