NFL Previews 
MLB Previews 
NBA Previews 
NHL Previews 
Soccer Previews 
Prediction 
Odds 
Last Recap 
Game Picks 
Top Handicapper 
Table of Contents
Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Game 4 Preview
The 2025 American League Championship Series continues Thursday night as the Seattle Mariners host the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 4 at T-Mobile Park. Toronto exploded offensively in Game 3 to trim the series deficit to 2–1, and now sends Max Scherzer to the mound for his long-awaited postseason debut in a Blue Jays uniform.
First pitch is scheduled for 8:33 PM ET on FS1, as both teams battle to swing the series momentum.
Line Movement and Odds
The Mariners opened as −130 favorites, but early sharp money on Seattle moved the line to −135. The total sits at 7.5 runs, leaning slightly to the over after Toronto’s offensive outburst in Game 3.
- Moneyline: Blue Jays +114 / Mariners −135
- Runline: Blue Jays +1.5 (−178) / Mariners −1.5 (+148)
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (Over −115 / Under −105)
For live updates and public betting splits, visit the MLB odds board.
Matchup Breakdown
The Blue Jays (94–68) erupted for five home runs in Game 3, crushing the Mariners 13–4 behind a vintage performance from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who went 4-for-4 with a homer and two doubles. The lineup also featured long balls from George Springer, Andres Gimenez, Alejandro Kirk, and Addison Barger, proving Toronto’s offense is alive and dangerous again.
Now, veteran ace Max Scherzer (5.19 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) takes the ball for his first postseason start since 2022. At 41, Scherzer brings elite experience and intensity, but durability remains a question. Still, his career numbers against Seattle — 4–2 with a 2.97 ERA in nine starts — suggest he matches up well with this lineup.
The Mariners (90–72) counter with Luis Castillo (3.54 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), who has yet to allow a run in the 2025 postseason. Castillo dominated Detroit in the ALDS with six scoreless innings and could be the steadying force Seattle needs after Wednesday’s bullpen collapse. He’ll likely have Bryan Woo, back from a late-season pectoral strain, available in relief.
Seattle remains dangerous offensively, ranking 3rd in MLB with 238 home runs, but has struggled to string together hits in this series. Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh went deep in Game 3, but they’ll need consistent contact and plate discipline to regain momentum against Scherzer.
Play the Matchup
Back your bets with verified stats and postseason analysis.
Injuries and Conditions
Toronto Blue Jays
- Yimi García (RP) — Out (elbow)
- Ryan Burr (RP) — Out (shoulder)
- Nick Sandlin (RP) — Out (elbow)
- Bowden Francis (SP) — Out (shoulder)
- Robinson Piña (SP) — Out (elbow)
- Angel Bastardo (SP) — Out (elbow)
Seattle Mariners
- Trent Thornton (RP) — Out (Achilles)
- Gregory Santos (RP) — Out (knee)
- Ryan Bliss (2B) — Out (bicep)
Both teams remain relatively stable, though Seattle’s bullpen depth is still being tested after consecutive short outings from their starters.
Betting Trends
- Toronto is 3-1 SU as an underdog in its last four.
- Seattle is 4-0 SU after a loss this postseason.
- Toronto has gone 3-0 to the Over on totals ≤ 7.5.
- Seattle is 4-0 on the runline when listed as an underdog.
- The Over has hit in four straight Toronto road games.
Best Bets and Prediction
The Mariners remain a slight favorite at home, but momentum has swung Toronto’s way after a statement win in Game 3. This matchup features two elite veteran arms — one looking to rebound (Scherzer), and one in peak form (Castillo). Expect early intensity and late bullpen influence.
- Moneyline Lean: Seattle −135
- Runline Lean: Toronto +1.5 (−178)
- Total Lean: Over 7.5 (−115)
- Projected Score: Mariners 5 – Blue Jays 3
With both lineups capable of explosive innings, the Over holds value again, especially with Scherzer’s recent inconsistency and Seattle’s ability to strike late.
Smart Bets Start Here
Back your bets with expert analysis
Handicappers and Service Plays
Consensus handicappers favor Seattle ML and Over 7.5, citing the Mariners’ bullpen reinforcements and Castillo’s consistency under pressure. However, sharp bettors are monitoring early first-five action on Toronto +0.5 given Scherzer’s strong history against Seattle.
When postseason pressure rises, so does the importance of betting the right side — not the public side. At ScoresAndStats, every handicapper’s record is verified in real time, ranked by profit, ROI, and win streaks across every sport.
See which MLB experts are winning now on the Best Handicappers Leaderboard and get access to their playoff picks before first pitch.
For more postseason coverage, explore our MLB picks section and MLB betting guide for deeper insight into trends and betting strategy.
