Rays vs Yankees Prediction: Will Slugging Power Push Total Over?

The Tampa Bay Rays will square off against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Thursday, July 31, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 PM ET under warm, partly cloudy skies in the Bronx. The Yankees opened as slight moneyline favorites at -116, while the Rays sit close behind at -102. The run line favors Tampa Bay -1.5 (+156), and the total is set at 8.5 runs (Over -115, Under -105).

Serious about MLB picks? Join thousands of bettors using real-time expert insights.
See today’s top-performing handicappers →

Rays Can Win If…

The Rays need to lean on their speed and batting consistency. Despite a 5-4 loss to the Yankees on Wednesday, Tampa Bay got promising production from Josh Lowe (HR, 2 RBI) and Brandon Lowe (2-for-4, RBI). Starter Zack Littell tossed five scoreless innings, showing depth in the rotation.

Tampa ranks 4th in MLB with a team batting average of .254 and leads the league in stolen bases with 141. Their ability to create chaos on the basepaths can give them an edge if they capitalize on Yankees starter Marcus Stroman’s 6.09 ERA.

Ryan Pepiot (3.42 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) takes the hill and gives the Rays a clear pitching edge.

Player to Watch

Josh Lowe is heating up and could spark a Rays rally if he capitalizes on Stroman’s early-game struggles.

Yankees Can Win If…

New York’s formula is simple: keep crushing the baseball. The Yankees are #1 in both slugging percentage and home runs, and they rode that power again Wednesday with homers from Trent Grisham and Anthony Volpe.

Marcus Stroman gets the start, and while his 6.09 ERA is concerning, the Bronx Bombers’ offense gives him breathing room. Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are two dynamic threats who can turn a game with one swing.

“We’re built to score fast and often — any guy in our lineup can go deep.”
— Yankees skipper Aaron Boone

Player to Watch

Volpe’s confidence is growing. His speed-power combo can flip an inning, and he’s been streaking at the plate.

Key MLB Betting Trends

Line Movement

• Opened near pick’em; public money has pushed Yankees slightly to -116 favorites.

Recent Form

• Yankees are 5-5 in their last 10, riding a 2-game win streak.
• Rays have dropped two straight and are just 2-8 in their last 10.

Totals Trends

• Over is 7-3 in Yankees’ last 10 home games.
• Rays have gone Over in 4 of Pepiot’s last 5 starts.

Run Line Records

• Yankees are 27-23 ATS at home.
• Rays are 25-27 ATS on the road.

The Lean

The Yankees’ power-hitting edge is too big to ignore, even with Stroman’s inconsistency. Tampa Bay has the edge on the mound, but New York’s home-field advantage and offensive production make them the smarter play.

Model Score Projection: Yankees 5, Rays 4
Pick: Yankees ML -116 and Over 8.5