Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions May 6th 2025

Bryce Harper’s Struggles & Phillies vs Rays Preview

The Phillies are headed south to face the Tampa Bay Rays, and all eyes are on Bryce Harper. The former MVP is looking to shake off a rough start to his season. But will this road series give him the spark he needs? As the Phillies aim to extend their win streak against Tampa Bay, there’s plenty at stake — not just for Harper, but for the team’s momentum in a tight season.

Let’s dive into what fans can expect, who’s on the mound, and why this series could shift the tide for both ball clubs.

Harper’s Hitting Slump: What’s Going On?

Bryce Harper’s bat hasn’t exactly been lighting up the stat sheets lately. He’s hit just .170 with a single home run and three RBIs in his last dozen games. His OPS? A chilly .568.

Harper himself admits it’s frustrating — not just for him, but for the team and the fans. “I just want to play better,” he said. He’s not chasing a mechanical tweak or hunting for a quick fix. Instead, he’s chalking it up to missing the good pitches and swinging at the bad ones. “I’m missing pitches over the plate and swinging at pitches out of the zone.”

Yet this script isn’t new. Around the same time last season, Harper had nearly identical numbers. By the end of May 2023, he had turned it around with a powerful stretch that helped elevate the Phillies’ offense.

Can History Repeat Itself?

Here’s the thing: Harper is a proven talent. When he gets hot, he catches fire. His numbers heading into May 4th this season are eerily similar to last year — a .234 batting average, six home runs, and 17 RBIs. By the end of that same month last season, he had bumped that to .270, with 13 homers and 42 RBIs.

That kind of leap is no small feat. If there’s one player in the majors who can silence the critics and carry his team on a hot streak, it’s Bryce.

If you’re tracking player form and want to dive deeper into Harper’s progression throughout the season, check out this MLB Team Stats page for real-time updates and analytics.

Pitching Matchup: Wheeler vs Rasmussen

Pitching might be where this series gets decided. Zack Wheeler and Drew Rasmussen are set to square off in the opener, and both have plenty to prove.

Zack Wheeler’s Quiet Consistency

Zack Wheeler (2-1, 3.48 ERA) has quietly been doing his job — maybe too quietly. In his last three starts, he’s allowed just two earned runs per game and logged at least six innings each time. Still, he’s only snagged one win thanks to some inconsistent bullpen support.

In his most recent outing, Wheeler gave up two runs over 6 2/3 innings in a 7-6 win over Washington. The win didn’t go on his record, though. Philly’s bullpen gave up four in the ninth before a walk-off win in the bottom half saved the day.

Wheeler’s history vs Tampa Bay? A mixed bag. He’s 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in four starts. But he did beat the Rays in their last head-to-head matchup on Sept. 11.

Want more betting angles and Wheeler’s expected odds performance? The MLB Odds Page is loaded with expert picks, spread trends, and betting advice.

Drew Rasmussen Looking to Bounce Back

On the Rays’ side, Drew Rasmussen is hunting for a win. He’s 1-2 with a 2.64 ERA, but his record doesn’t reflect how well he’s been pitching. In five April starts, he posted a strong 3.16 ERA, but his team left him out to dry — including in his last start, a 3-0 loss to the Royals.

Rasmussen gave up three runs over five innings. The problem? Zero run support.

“I didn’t really think (my) execution was terrible,” he said. And honestly, he’s got a point.

He’s made four appearances against the Phillies — including one start — and has a 1.86 ERA but no wins to show for it. The pitching duel could be tight.

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Phillies vs Rays: Recent Form & Series Outlook

This isn’t just about two arms dueling it out. The Phillies and Rays are both at critical moments in their seasons.

Philadelphia’s Quiet Momentum

Despite Sunday’s extra-innings loss to Arizona, the Phillies have won six of their last eight games. That kind of quiet roll could be the spark they need to go on a deeper run — especially if Harper finds his swing again.

With a lineup that’s shown they can slug their way out of trouble, all they need is a consistent start and reliable bullpen.

To track the latest expert predictions and betting picks for the Phillies, check out the MLB Picks Page. It’s updated daily with projections and picks from seasoned analysts.

Tampa Bay’s Home Struggles

The Rays had a rough time at home against Kansas City, getting swept in an unexpected blow. They bounced back with a series win against the Yankees, but the inconsistency is glaring.

That said, they’ve got home-field advantage and a chip on their shoulder after being blanked twice last week.

The Phillies have also had Tampa’s number lately, winning six straight over the Rays — including sweeps in September and July of last season.

What to Watch in the Series Opener

This game has several subplots worth following — from Harper’s form to bullpen trust, and the tactical chess match between two quality managers.

Key Factors for Philly

• Harper’s first few at-bats will be closely watched
• Wheeler needs run support to capitalize on his form
• Can the bullpen hold the lead?

Tampa’s Priorities

• Rasmussen’s early innings will set the tone
• Who steps up to generate offense?
• Will home-field advantage actually help this time?

Want a deep dive into betting angles and strategies for this series? Hit up the Expert Betting Guide for insights backed by data and trends.

FAQs

Why is Bryce Harper struggling right now?
He’s not connecting with pitches over the plate and is chasing balls out of the zone — a classic slump pattern for power hitters.

Is Harper’s current performance worse than last year?
Not really. In fact, his stats this year almost mirror last year’s. He turned it around in late May, so there’s hope he’ll do it again.

What are the Phillies’ chances against the Rays?
Historically strong — they’ve won six straight against Tampa Bay and seem to match up well in both hitting and pitching.

Who has the edge on the mound in the series opener?
It’s pretty even. Wheeler is more consistent, but Rasmussen has the better ERA. It’ll likely come down to which team gives more support.

Can the Rays break their losing streak against Philly?
It’s possible, especially with home-field advantage. But they’ll need timely hitting and better bullpen execution.

Where can I find MLB betting picks for this game?
You can find daily expert picks and breakdowns on the MLB Picks Page.