Rangers vs Mariners Prediction: Will Seattle’s Power Hit Over the Total?

The Texas Rangers head to the Pacific Northwest to take on the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on Thursday, July 31, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 PM ET under the lights in Seattle. The Mariners opened as -158 favorites on the moneyline, while the Rangers are priced at +132. The total sits at 7.5 runs (Over/Under -110), with the run line favoring Seattle -1.5 at +138.

Rangers Can Win If…

Texas will need to rely on its elite pitching to stifle the Mariners’ bats. Despite an 8-5 loss to the Angels, the Rangers flashed offensive promise with 14 hits and two home runs. Kyle Higashioka was the standout performer, belting two solo shots.

The Rangers’ pitching staff leads MLB with a 3.25 ERA and has held opponents to a league-best .226 batting average. Rookie starter Kumar Rocker will take the mound with support from a reliable bullpen and key bats like Corey Seager (.270 AVG, 15 HR) and Josh Smith (.277 AVG).

“We know what we’re capable of—our pitching gives us a chance every night,”
— Rangers manager Bruce Bochy on the team’s consistency

Player to Watch

Kyle Higashioka could stay hot following his multi-homer game, especially against George Kirby’s high-contact approach.

Mariners Can Win If…

Seattle’s power and speed combo remains their calling card. They’ve hit 149 home runs (5th in MLB) and swiped 104 bags (3rd). Cal Raleigh’s 41 homers headline an explosive lineup, while Julio Rodríguez continues to provide consistent production, most recently collecting two hits and a double in a loss to Oakland.

George Kirby (4.50 ERA) will start for the Mariners. He struck out nine over six innings in his last outing and will look to replicate that dominance. If Kirby can limit damage and Raleigh delivers at the plate, the Mariners are in a strong position.

“We’ve got game-changers up and down this lineup—we just need to put it all together,”
— Mariners skipper Dan Wilson on recent struggles

Player to Watch

Cal Raleigh remains one of the most dangerous hitters in the league and could be the difference-maker against Texas’ tough pitching.

Key MLB Betting Trends

Line Movement

• Mariners opened at -158 and have held steady amid light action on the total.

Recent Form

• Rangers are 7-3 in their last 10 despite dropping two straight.
• Mariners have lost 6 of their last 10.

Run Line Records

• Texas is 30-24 ATS on the road.
• Seattle is 28-25 ATS at home.

Totals Trends

• Over is 6-2 in Rangers’ last 8 road games.
• Mariners have gone Over in 4 of George Kirby’s last 6 starts.

For added context, check how both clubs have been trending in recent MLB Game Results.

The Lean

Seattle’s offensive firepower, especially at home, makes them the right side here. While Texas owns the ERA edge, the Mariners’ speed and slugging balance that out. My model favors Seattle 5-3.

Model Score Projection: Mariners 5, Rangers 3
Pick: Mariners ML -158 and Over 7.5

Get more sharp breakdowns and matchup angles in our Expert Baseball Picks section.