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Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Game 3 Preview
The 2025 American League Championship Series shifts to Seattle for Game 3 as the Mariners look to push the Toronto Blue Jays to the brink of elimination. Seattle leads the series 2-0 after back-to-back wins in Toronto and now returns to T-Mobile Park, where they’ll rely on home-field energy to keep their postseason momentum rolling.
First pitch is set for Wednesday, October 15, 2025, at 8:03 PM ET on FOX. The retractable roof in Seattle should neutralize the mild crosswinds and overcast skies outside.
Bet With Confidence
Data-driven expert selections
Line Movement and Odds
Oddsmakers opened the Mariners as −130 favorites, with steady action keeping the line near −135. Bettors expect another offensive-heavy matchup after Seattle outscored Toronto 17–7 over the first two games.
- Moneyline: Blue Jays +115 / Mariners −135
- Runline: Blue Jays +1.5 (−175) / Mariners −1.5 (+145)
- Total: Over/Under 7.0 (Over −105 / Under −116)
Get real-time MLB line updates and market splits on the MLB odds page.
Matchup Breakdown
The Blue Jays (94–68) face a must-win scenario after their 10–3 loss in Game 2. Nathan Lukes led Toronto’s offense with three hits, but the team struggled to generate consistent production beyond him. Toronto still boasts the top batting average in MLB (.265) and ranks second in on-base percentage (.331), which makes them dangerous even down in the count.
Shane Bieber (3.57 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) takes the mound in hopes of stabilizing Toronto’s rotation. Bieber’s command and low walk rate will be key against a Seattle lineup that thrives on extending at-bats. Offensively, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer must deliver timely hits to counter Seattle’s early-series surge.
The Mariners (90–72) enter Game 3 with full momentum after hammering the Blue Jays in Game 2. Julio Rodríguez, Jorge Polanco, and Josh Naylor all went deep in the win, showcasing Seattle’s power that ranked 3rd in the league with 238 home runs during the regular season.
George Kirby (4.21 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) will start for Seattle after a strong performance in the Division Series. The right-hander’s precision and fastball control will be tested against one of MLB’s most patient lineups. With the series shifting to their home turf, Seattle’s bullpen and depth give them an added edge.
Injuries and Conditions
Toronto Blue Jays
- Yimi García (RP) — Out (elbow)
- Anthony Santander (RF) — Day-to-Day (lower back)
- Ryan Burr (RP) — Out (shoulder)
- Nick Sandlin (RP) — Out (elbow)
- Bowden Francis (SP) — Out (shoulder)
- Robinson Piña (SP) — Out (elbow)
- Angel Bastardo (SP) — Out (elbow)
Seattle Mariners
- Trent Thornton (RP) — Out (Achilles)
- Gregory Santos (RP) — Out (knee)
- Ryan Bliss (2B) — Out (bicep)
Seattle remains healthier overall, particularly in its starting rotation, giving them an advantage over a Toronto bullpen thinned by injuries.
Betting Trends
- Seattle is 3-0 SU in its last 3 games.
- Toronto is 3-1 SU vs division opponents.
- Seattle is undefeated on the runline as an underdog (3-0).
- Toronto is 3-0 O/U after a win since September.
- All three Seattle home playoff games have gone under the total (0-3 O/U).
Best Bets and Prediction
Seattle holds the momentum, lineup depth, and home-field advantage. Bieber should keep Toronto competitive early, but the Mariners’ bullpen and late-inning power tilt the matchup in their favor.
- Moneyline Lean: Seattle −135
- Runline Lean: Seattle −1.5 (+145)
- Total Lean: Over 7.0 (−105)
- Projected Score: Mariners 5 – Blue Jays 3
The model expects a competitive start but another late Seattle surge to push the game over the total.
Top Handicappers
Proven records, real results
Handicappers and Service Plays
Consensus handicappers favor Seattle ML and Over 7.0, citing the Mariners’ power surge and bullpen reliability. However, sharp bettors are monitoring early value on Toronto’s first five innings with Bieber on the hill.
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Compare today’s top MLB experts on the Best Handicappers Leaderboard — and find out who’s hot heading into Game 3 of the ALCS.
For additional series predictions and daily picks, check the MLB picks page.
