Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Predictions May 9th 2025

The Thunder (-219) are 5.5-point favorites against the Nuggets (+183) in a division matchup between two Western Conference teams. Oklahoma City is 68-14 and 1st in the Western Conference, while Denver is 50-32 and 4th in the Western Conference.

ESPN has coverage of this game, which is being played at Ball Arena in Denver. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 ET.

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Thunder vs. Nuggets Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets
• Where: Denver at Ball Arena
• Date: Friday, May 9th
• Betting Odds OKC -5.5, OKC -219 | DEN +183 O/U 232.5

The Thunder Can Win If…

The Thunder improved to 68-14 on the season with a dominant 149-106 win over the Nuggets on Wednesday. Playing at home, Oklahoma City covered the spread as 10-point favorites and the game’s total of 255 points went over the O/U line of 230.

Oklahoma City set the tone early, going on a 10-0 run to extend their lead from 23-11 to 33-11. They outscored Denver 45-21 in the 1st quarter and 42-35 in the 2nd. After a strong 3rd quarter, where they held the Nuggets to 20 points while scoring 37, the Thunder entered the 4th with a 124-76 lead. Denver outscored Oklahoma City 30-25 in the final quarter, but the Thunder had already secured the win.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder to a 149-point performance in their win over the Nuggets, shooting 84.6% from the field and scoring 34 points, including 16 in the 3rd quarter. Jalen Williams contributed 17 points, and Chet Holmgren added 15 points and 11 rebounds, hitting 2 threes at 66.7% efficiency.

As a team, the Thunder shot 56.2% from the field and made 16 threes at a 44.4% clip. Isaiah Joe added 8 of his 14 points in the 4th quarter, while Luguentz Dort scored 10 of his 12 points in the opening period.

The Thunder’s defense held the Nuggets to 106 points on Wednesday, with strong performances in the 1st and 3rd quarters, where they allowed just 21 and 20 points, respectively. Overall, Oklahoma City limited Denver to 37% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Thunder gave up 15 threes on 40% shooting. They also sent the Nuggets to the free-throw line 32 times, where Denver converted 25. Defensively, Oklahoma City recorded 12 steals and 8 blocks.

• In their last three games away from home, the Thunder have a straight up record of 3-0 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team averaged 115 points per game in this stretch.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Thunder have a straight up record of 4-1, while going 2-3 against the spread.
• Over their last three games, the Thunder have an over/under record of 3-0 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

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The Nuggets Can Win If…

The Nuggets fell to 50-32 on the season after a 149-106 road loss to the Thunder on Wednesday. Denver, who entered the game as +10 underdogs, failed to cover the spread. The final score exceeded the O/U line of 230, with the teams combining for 255 points.

Oklahoma City took control early, going on a 10-0 run to extend their lead from 23-11 to 33-11. Denver trailed 45-21 after the 1st quarter and 124-76 entering the 4th. They outscored the Thunder 30-25 in the final quarter, but the game was already out of reach.

In their 149-106 loss to the Thunder, the Nuggets shot just 37.9% from the field. They did connect on 15 threes, hitting 40.5% from beyond the arc.

Russell Westbrook led Denver with 19 points, scoring 7 in the 1st quarter and 8 more in the 2nd. Nikola Jokić added 17 points, with 11 coming in the 2nd quarter, while Jamal Murray finished with 14 points, knocking down 3 threes at a 60% clip.

Defensively, the Nuggets struggled on Wednesday, allowing 149 points to the Thunder. Denver gave up 45 points in the 1st quarter and 42 in the 2nd, with Oklahoma City shooting 56% from the field.

The Thunder also hit 16 threes at a 44% clip. Denver sent Oklahoma City to the line 36 times, where they made 33 free throws. The Nuggets recorded 4 steals and 6 blocks.

• Although Denver has a straight up record of 1-2 in their last three home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-1-1. The team averaged 110 points per game in these games.
• Through their last five games as the underdog, the Nuggets have an ATS record of 3-1-1 and a straight up mark of 3-2.
• In their last three games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

We’re calling a win for the Thunder, with a final score of 153-140, and we’re taking them to cover the spread. Our recommendation is to bet on the Thunder at -5.5.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 232.5 and our model has the Thunder and Nuggets finishing with a combined 293 points. Our pick is to take the over.

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Nuggets Rely on Experience, Thunder on Road Dominance in Crucial Game 3

With the Western Conference semifinal series tied at one apiece, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets head into Game 3 in Denver on Friday night with momentum swinging in opposite directions. After being stunned in Game 1, the Thunder bounced back with a 43-point blowout, proving this series is far from predictable.

Thunder’s Explosive Bounce-Back

Oklahoma City overwhelmed Denver early in Game 2, jumping out to a 24-point lead in the first quarter and building it to as much as 49. It was a complete reversal of Game 1 and a clear message that the Thunder aren’t just happy to be here.

“Winning by a hundred or winning by two, it’s still 1-1… It’s important to turn the page.”
— Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

With one of the league’s best road records (32-8 in the regular season), the Thunder don’t need home-court to stay competitive. That’s something to keep in mind for those tracking NBA game predictions heading into the weekend.

Defensive Adjustments Disrupt Jokic

The Thunder’s game plan was clear: make life difficult for Nikola Jokic. They pressured him into six turnovers, limited him to 17 points, and forced him to foul out late in the third.

“They are fouling Joker first… They are a handsy team.”
— Aaron Gordon

Oklahoma City also held the Nuggets to 37.9% shooting and won the rebounding battle. Their energy, length, and pace made Denver look disjointed—exactly the kind of edge savvy bettors look for in NBA picks and betting analysis.

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Nuggets Lean on Championship Pedigree

Despite the lopsided loss, Denver isn’t likely to panic. They’ve rebounded from playoff adversity before and will trust their veteran core to recalibrate. Interim coach David Adelman emphasized that the locker room took ownership of the loss.

“That allows you to move on and do things better (Friday).”
— David Adelman

Michael Porter Jr.’s lingering shoulder issue remains a concern, though he’s not on the official injury report. Expect Russell Westbrook to continue seeing meaningful minutes as Denver tweaks its rotations.