Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Predictions May 11th 2025

Series Momentum on the Line

With the Thunder leading the series 2–1 but watching the Nuggets steal momentum on the road, Game 4 in Denver becomes a must-win for Oklahoma City. A defeat would not only put them down 3–1 but also hand the Nuggets a golden opportunity to close out the series at home. Expect both teams to dial up urgency—OKC to protect its edge and Denver to reclaim its dominant playoff identity—making every possession feel like it carries extra weight.

Halftime vs. Fourth-Quarter Execution

Oklahoma City has outscored Denver by 32 points overall, yet two of three games have slipped through late-game breakdowns. Coach Mark Daigneault must devise strategies to maintain intensity past the third quarter—whether through targeted timeouts to stem Denver runs or by shifting closer defensive assignments. Conversely, Mike Malone will look to the Nuggets’ veteran instincts, trusting Nikola Jokić and Michael Porter Jr. to exploit mismatches when the game slows down.

Star Power: Shai’s Rebound and Joker’s Adjustments

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s mid-series dip—just three fourth-quarter points and no overtime attempts in Game 3—stands in stark contrast to his earlier heroics. OKC needs him to recapture his clutch scoring to alleviate pressure on role players. On the other side, Jokić, held to 8-for-25 shooting and 0-for-10 from deep, must adjust to the Thunder’s paint-packed defense by creating off-ball movement or facilitating open looks for teammates.

Role Players’ Impact: Porter, Gordon and Caruso

Denver’s late surge in Game 3 relied on Aaron Gordon’s timely three and Michael Porter Jr.’s 5-for-6 shooting from deep in overtime. OKC counters with Alex Caruso’s perimeter tenacity and Kenrich Williams’s energy runs, aiming to disrupt Denver’s flow. Whichever supporting cast delivers consistent hustle plays—loose-ball recoveries, contested shots, second-chance points—will tip the balance in this tightly contested series.

Tactical Matchups and Key Adjustments

Expect OKC to run more pick-and-rolls to pull Jokić away from the basket and free shooters like Chet Holmgren. Denver, in turn, will deploy mix-and-match coverages—switching heavy to limit roll threats or dropping out to contest shooters. Controlling pace—Oklahoma City’s push tempo versus Denver’s methodical half-court sets—will determine possession value. Winning the rebound battle and avoiding unforced turnovers in transition will be critical late.

Betting Angle

With both stars capable of swinging momentum and role players stepping up in crunch time, consider first-half over/unders and player prop shots for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić. For deeper series analysis and prop breakdowns, explore our NBA Expert Picks.