Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Predictions May 15th 2025

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder May 15th 2025

The Thunder (-187) are favored by 4.5 points in this division matchup against the Nuggets (+158). The over/under line is set at 215.5 points.

Oklahoma City (68-14) is on a two-game winning streak and is currently 1st in the Western Conference. Denver (50-32) has lost two in a row and is 4th in the West.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets
• Where: Denver at Ball Arena
• Date: Thursday, May 15th
• Betting Odds OKC -4.5, OKC -187 | DEN +158 O/U 215.5

The Thunder Can Win If…

With a 112-105 win over the Nuggets on Tuesday, the Thunder improved to 68-14 this season. Despite being -10 point favorites, they didn’t cover the spread, winning by seven. The game’s total of 217 points fell just short of the 221.5-point line.

Denver went on a 10-0 run early, but the Thunder rallied in the 4th quarter, outscoring the Nuggets 34-19 to close out the game.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder to a 112-105 win over the Nuggets, finishing with 31 points, 7 assists, and 6 rebounds, shooting 52.2% from the field. He scored 10 points in both the 3rd and 4th quarters. Jalen Williams added 18 points, 9 of which came in the 1st quarter, though he shot just 35.7% from the field.

The Thunder hit 12 threes at a 41.4% clip, with an overall field goal percentage of 50%. Isaiah Hartenstein contributed 15 points, shooting 70%, while Luguentz Dort scored 9 of his 12 points in the final quarter.

Despite giving up 28 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters, the Thunder tightened up defensively in the 4th, allowing just 19 points to secure the win. Oklahoma City held Denver to 105 points on 41% shooting from the field.

The Thunder did a great job defending the three, as the Nuggets shot just 28% from deep, making 13 threes. Oklahoma City also recorded 7 steals and 6 blocks in the game.

• In their last three games away from home, the Thunder have a straight up record of 2-1 while going 0-3 vs the spread. The team averaged 104 points per game in this stretch.
• Through their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Thunder have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 0-3.
• Over their last three games, the Thunder have an over/under record of 0-3 and are 0-3 vs. the spread.

The Nuggets Can Win If…

The Nuggets fell to 50-32 on the season after a 112-105 road loss to the Thunder on Tuesday. Denver entered the game as +10 point underdogs but managed to keep it closer than expected. The total score of 217 points came in just under the 221.5-point line.

Denver looked strong early, going on a 10-0 run to stretch their lead from 14-10 to 24-10. They led 86-78 going into the 4th quarter but were outscored 34-19 in the final period.

Nikola Jokić was the standout performer for the Nuggets in their loss to the Thunder, scoring 44 points and grabbing 15 rebounds while shooting 68% from the field. He also hit 5 threes at a 71.4% clip. Jamal Murray added 28 points, with 13 coming in the 3rd quarter, though he shot just 37% from the field and 23.1% from beyond the arc.

As a team, Denver struggled with their shooting, hitting just 41.2% from the field and 28.3% from three-point range. They made 13 threes in the game, but their overall offensive performance was lacking, finishing with just 105 points in the loss.

Defensively, the Nuggets were solid through three quarters, but a 34-point 4th quarter from the Thunder proved costly in their 112-105 loss. Denver allowed Oklahoma City to shoot 50% from the field overall.

The Nuggets gave up 12 threes on 41% shooting and sent the Thunder to the line 23 times, where they made 18 free throws. Denver finished with 33 defensive rebounds, 10 steals, and 3 blocked shots.

• Across their last five home contests, Denver has a 3-1-1 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 2-3, while averaging 107 points per game.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Nuggets have a straight up record of 2-3 and an ATS mark of 4-1.
• In their last five games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 4-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

The Thunder is our selection to secure the victory, with a projected score of 151-137. We also like them to cover the spread, so we suggest betting on the Thunder at -4.5.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 215.5, and our model projects the Thunder and Nuggets to reach a combined total of 288 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

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Nuggets Struggle With Depth, Blown Leads as Thunder Eye Series Win

The Oklahoma City Thunder are now one game away from punching their ticket to the Western Conference Finals—something they haven’t done since 2016. After a 112-105 comeback win in Game 5, the Thunder lead the series 3-2 and can close it out on Thursday in Denver.

“We know it’s going to take everything to win in Denver,” said rising star Chet Holmgren. “It’s a close-out game—we’ve got to lock in.”

Oklahoma City has flipped the narrative in this series. Once down 2-1 and reeling from playoff experience disadvantages, they’ve now taken back-to-back games thanks to clutch execution and defensive pressure.

For deeper NBA analysis and expert betting picks, visit our NBA Picks Page.

Jokic Can’t Do It Alone

Nikola Jokic was a beast in Game 5—dropping 44 points and 15 rebounds—but it wasn’t enough. While Jokic and Aaron Gordon combined to shoot 23-of-38 from the field, the rest of the Nuggets were just 17-for-59.

Michael Porter Jr., dealing with a sore shoulder, went 1-for-7. After the game, he shouldered the blame: “I haven’t been contributing in any way… That’s really tough.”

Jamal Murray had 13 points in the third quarter, but in the fourth, he managed only one field goal—coming with 17 seconds left. The team as a whole was 1-for-15 in the final quarter, excluding Jokic’s efforts.

Stay current with live NBA betting lines and in-game momentum swings via our NBA Odds Page.

Denver’s Depth Woes Becoming Fatal Flaw

The fatigue is showing. Denver leaned heavily on its stars in Game 5—Jokic, Murray, and Christian Braun each played over 42 minutes, and Gordon added 37. By contrast, no Thunder player logged 40 minutes.

“If fatigue is the reason we lost, that’s on me,” said interim head coach David Adelman. “I’m deciding who stays on the floor.”

Denver’s limited rotation—often only seven deep—is being tested against a Thunder team that’s deeper and fresher. With the Nuggets now in a win-or-go-home spot, adjustments are critical.

Explore player performance trends and prop bets with the Expert Betting Guide.

Oklahoma City Showing Growth and Killer Instinct

Oklahoma City has used this series to grow up fast. After being blown out in Game 2, they’ve learned to close tight games—winning the last two by executing when it counts.

“Each game, we’ve gotten better,” said head coach Mark Daigneault. “We’re evolving and figuring things out on the fly.”

With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way and support from Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Lu Dort, OKC’s blend of talent, depth, and energy is wearing the Nuggets down.

Get the latest division odds and playoff futures via our NBA Championship Predictions Blog.

FAQs

What is the series score between the Nuggets and Thunder?
Oklahoma City leads the series 3-2.

When is Game 6 being played?
Thursday night in Denver.

How did the Thunder win Game 5?
They came back in the fourth quarter, holding Denver to one field goal (excluding Jokic) in the final 12 minutes.

Why is Denver struggling?
Depth issues and lack of scoring support for Jokic have hurt the Nuggets in tight games.

Is Michael Porter Jr. injured?
Yes, he’s playing through a shoulder injury and has struggled offensively.

When was the last time OKC reached the conference finals?
In 2016, when they lost to Golden State after blowing a 3-1 lead.