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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview
Dallas enters Friday on a three-game surge and finally showing cohesion. Cooper Flagg has transformed his scoring output, averaging 27 points on 59 percent shooting during the streak. Ryan Nembhard has elevated the offense with 43 points and 23 assists across two wins. Anthony Davis’ return has steadied the interior and opened cutting lanes for Flagg.
The challenge now is Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 21-1 and riding a 13-game win streak, the best start in the league since Golden State’s 24-0 run in 2015-16. Their early-season dominance has shifted from blowout wins to controlled late-game execution, which Shai Gilgeous-Alexander views as a sign of development from last year’s championship run.
Dallas had no answer for Oklahoma City in their first matchup, a 101-94 loss where Flagg scored two points on 1-of-9 shooting. This game offers a sharp measuring stick for the rookie’s progress.
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Line Movement and Odds
Oklahoma City opened -14 and climbed to -15 as most bettors back the league’s top defense and home-court strength. Dallas sits +15, drawing value-seeking action with its recent offensive surge.
The total opened 228.5 and has settled at 227.5. Sharp splits favor the under with both teams defending the three-point line well.
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Matchup Breakdown
Dallas has leaned heavily on Flagg’s efficiency and Nembhard’s decision-making. Their cutting game and paint touches have improved, but injuries continue to test their depth. Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington remain question marks. Dallas’ top defensive strength is limiting opponents’ three-point accuracy, which gives them a path to stay competitive.
Oklahoma City brings balance. Gilgeous-Alexander controls tempo and creates efficient late-clock looks. Chet Holmgren protects the rim and stretches defenses. Their transition defense ranks among the league’s best, and they allow only 107 points per game. Even without Isaiah Hartenstein and possibly Luguentz Dort or Alex Caruso, their system remains airtight.
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Injuries and Conditions
Dallas Mavericks
- Daniel Gafford, ankle, doubtful
- Dereck Lively II, foot, out
- PJ Washington, ankle, doubtful
- Kyrie Irving, recovery, uncertain
See full Dallas Mavericks injury report.
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Isaiah Hartenstein, Achilles, out
- Alex Caruso, ankle, questionable
- Luguentz Dort, knee, questionable
See full Oklahoma City Thunder injury report. Indoor venue, no weather impact.
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Best Bets and Prediction
Dallas has played its sharpest offense of the season, but Oklahoma City’s defensive structure and efficiency gap are substantial. With Dallas’ frontcourt injuries, second-chance issues are likely.
Projected Score: Thunder 118, Mavericks 108
Best Bet: Mavericks +15
Secondary Lean: Under 227.5
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