Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Picks and Predictions May 18th 2025

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets May 18th 2025

At 3:30 ET on ABC, the Thunder (-329) will host the Nuggets (+266) in a Western Northwest division matchup. Oklahoma City is favored by 8.5 points, and the over/under line for the game is 213.

Denver is 50-32 on the season and is currently 4th in the Western Conference. The Thunder are 68-14 and are 1st in the West.

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Nuggets vs. Thunder Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
• Where: Oklahoma City at Paycom Center
• Date: Sunday, May 18th
• Betting Odds OKC -8.5, DEN +266 | OKC -329 O/U 213

The Nuggets Can Win If…

The Nuggets improved to 50-32 on the season with a 119-107 win over the Thunder on Thursday. Denver was a +5 point underdog but covered the spread with the win. The game’s total of 226 points went over the 218-point line.

Denver went on a 12-0 run, turning a 58-49 deficit into a 61-58 lead. They outscored the Thunder 32-21 in the 3rd quarter and finished strong in the 4th, winning that quarter 29-25.

Nikola Jokić led the Nuggets to a win over the Thunder, posting 29 points, 14 rebounds, and 8 assists while shooting 64.3% from the field. Jamal Murray added 25 points, and Christian Braun contributed 23 points and 11 rebounds, hitting 3 threes at 50% efficiency.

Jokić scored 11 points in the 4th quarter, while Murray had 11 in the 1st. Julian Strawther added 8 of his 15 points in the 3rd and 7 more in the 4th. The Nuggets shot 46.5% from the field, with 12 made threes at 37.5% efficiency.

The Nuggets gave up 107 points to the Thunder on Thursday but delivered a strong defensive effort in the 3rd quarter, allowing just 21 points. They also held the Thunder to 25 points in the 4th quarter to help secure the win.

Denver limited Oklahoma City to 11 made threes on 27% shooting from deep. The Thunder went 10/16 from the free-throw line. The Nuggets grabbed 41 defensive rebounds, gave up 7 offensive boards, and added 8 steals and 6 blocks.

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Denver has an ATS record of 3-1-1 while averaging 107 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
• Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the Nuggets have a strong record vs the spread going 4-1. Their straight up mark in these contests is 2-3.
• Over their last five games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 4-1 vs. the spread.

The Thunder Can Win If…

The Thunder fell to 68-14 this season after a 119-107 road loss to the Nuggets on Thursday. Oklahoma City, favored by 5 points, not only lost but failed to cover the spread. The game’s total score of 226 points went over the 218-point line.

A 12-0 run by Denver shifted the game’s momentum, taking the score from 58-49 to 61-58. Oklahoma City led 61-58 after the 2nd quarter but were outscored 32-21 in the 3rd and couldn’t close the gap after entering the 4th quarter down 90-82.

In their 119-107 loss to the Nuggets, the Thunder shot 46.7% from the field, with a three-point percentage of just 27.5%, hitting 11 threes overall. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 32 points, shooting 68.8% from the field and 50% from beyond the arc, adding 6 assists.

Chet Holmgren contributed 19 points and 11 rebounds, shooting 57.1% from the field and making 2 threes at 28.6%. Luguentz Dort also hit 2 threes, finishing with 10 points on 44.4% shooting.

Defensively, the Thunder allowed 119 points to the Nuggets, giving up 31 points in the 1st and 32 in the 3rd quarter. They held Denver to 29 points in the 4th quarter.

Oklahoma City allowed the Nuggets to shoot 46% from the field, including 37% from three-point range, with Denver hitting 12 threes. The Thunder sent the Nuggets to the free-throw line 32 times, where they made 27. Oklahoma City recorded 11 steals and 4 blocks.

• Across their five previous home games, Oklahoma City has an ATS mark of 0-5. Their straight up record in these matchups was 3-2 while averaging 106 points per game.
• Through their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Thunder have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 1-4.
• In their last three games, the Thunder have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

The Lean

We’re putting our money on the Thunder to win, and have the projected score sitting at 150-138. We also like them to cover the spread, so our recommendation is to bet on the Thunder at -8.5.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 213 and given that our model is projecting 288 points between the teams, we like the over.

Aaron Gordon’s Status

Gordon, the hero of Game 1, is a game-time decision after straining his left hamstring in Game 6. If he’s limited, Denver will rely more heavily on Peyton Watson’s energy and defensive versatility.

Nikola Jokic’s Resurgence

After a slow start, Jokic has exploded over the past two games, averaging 36.5 points, 14.5 rebounds, and shooting 66.7% from the floor. His efficiency and playmaking will be crucial against Oklahoma City’s length.

Thunder’s Depth and Continuity

Despite injuries, OKC’s deep rotation under coach Mark Daigneault has remained consistent all season. Veterans Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort anchor the attack, while young contributors must step up in this must-win moment.

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X-Factors and Strategy

Special teams—namely rebounding and free-throw efficiency—could swing a one-possession affair. Denver’s experience in previous Game 7s contrasts with OKC’s first since 2020; composure under pressure will decide the outcome.

Our NBA Picks Today

Backing Denver to pull off the upset carries value, given Jokic’s elite form and Gordon’s potential return. For alternate action, consider the under on total points—Game 7s often tighten up as stakes rise.