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The UC Davis Aggies head south to LionTree Arena this Thursday night for a pivotal Big West clash against the California-San Diego Tritons. Tipoff is set for 10:00 PM ET on ESPN+. This is a high-stakes rematch from a January meeting where the Tritons walked into Davis and escaped with an 80-74 win. Currently, UC San Diego sits at 16-9 overall, while the Aggies are right on their heels at 15-9. For UC Davis, this is a major revenge spot and a chance to prove their recent three-game winning streak is the real deal.
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The Tritons open as 5.5-point home favorites with a moneyline of -240, while the Aggies come back as +186 underdogs. Despite the Tritons’ solid 9-5 record at home, they have been a bit shaky lately, going 1-4 in their last five games before a much-needed win over Long Beach State. UC Davis, conversely, has covered in three straight and looks like a team finding its offensive stride at just the right time. With both teams fighting for a top-four seed in the conference tournament, the intensity in San Diego should be tournament-level.
UC Davis vs California-San Diego Odds
These lines have remained fairly steady, but you should always monitor the latest college basketball odds for any late-day movement caused by sharp action or lineup changes.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| UC Davis | +186 | +5.5 (-117) | O 149.5 (-113) |
| California-San Diego | -240 | -5.5 (-109) | U 149.5 (-113) |
UC Davis Betting Form
UC Davis is currently playing some of its best basketball of the season. They average 79.3 points per game and have shown a knack for winning on the road, including a tough victory at Bakersfield recently. Marcus Wilson has been the focal point of the offense, coming off a 24-point performance against Cal Poly. When Wilson is aggressive, it opens up the perimeter for Connor Sevilla, who can be a microwave scorer as evidenced by his 27-point outburst earlier this month.
The Aggies’ identity is built on a high-percentage attack; they rank 114th in the nation in effective field goal percentage at 53.4%. While their defense can be leaky at times, their ability to force turnovers and get out in transition has kept them competitive in every Big West game. You can find a deeper dive into their recent trends on the UC Davis stats and results page. Depth is a slight concern with Isaiah Chappell out, so keep a close eye on the UC Davis injury report to see if their bench rotation remains shortened for this road trip.
California-San Diego Betting Form
The Tritons are looking to protect LionTree Arena and sweep the season series. They average 76.8 points per game and rely on a balanced scoring attack led by Leo Beath and Tom Beattie. Bol Dengdit is the x-factor here; his ability to post a double-double, as he did against Long Beach State, gives the Tritons a physical presence in the paint that UC Davis sometimes struggles to match. When the Tritons are clicking, they move the ball exceptionally well and limit mistakes, ranking among the better teams in the conference in turnover rate.
However, health has been an issue lately. Redshirt junior Leo Beath has been dealing with illness, and the backcourt has been thin with Emanuel Prospere II sidelined. These absences forced freshman Jaden Vance into a bigger role, and while he responded well, the Tritons are definitely more vulnerable when their primary creators are out. Check the California-San Diego schedule and stats to see how they’ve fared in games without their full starting five. For the most recent updates on the roster, the California-San Diego injury report is a mandatory stop before locking in a bet.
UC Davis vs California-San Diego Matchup Breakdown
This game is going to be a battle of offensive efficiency. Both teams rank in the top 130 in effective field goal percentage, meaning we shouldn’t see many long scoring droughts. UC Davis actually scores more points per game than the Tritons, yet they find themselves as nearly six-point underdogs. This is likely due to UCSD’s home-court advantage and their rebounding edge, as they pull down over 37 boards per game.
- Turnover Margin: UC Davis is second in the Big West in turnover margin. If they can force UCSD’s fill-in ball handlers into mistakes, they can negate the Tritons’ home-court edge.
- The 3-Point Line: The Aggies are among the best in the league at shooting the triple. In their last meeting, UCSD’s defense allowed too many open looks, a mistake they can’t repeat tonight.
- Interior Presence: Bol Dengdit against Niko Rocak will be a physical battle. If Rocak gets into foul trouble, UC Davis has very little rim protection behind him.
I think the pace of this game will be higher than the market expects. Both teams are comfortable playing in the 70s, and with the way Marcus Wilson is playing, UC Davis won’t be afraid to turn this into a track meet. For more on how to handicap these mid-major tempo battles, our college basketball betting guide offers some sharp insights on conference rematch trends.
UC Davis vs California-San Diego Predictions and Best Bets
I am grabbing the points with UC Davis +5.5. The Aggies are the hotter team right now, and they have the scoring punch to keep this within a single possession. The Tritons have been dealing with some key injuries and illness, and while they are tough at home, 5.5 points feels a bit too high for a matchup between two teams that are statistically neck-and-neck. UC Davis has the revenge motivation and the guard play to pull off an outright upset, but the spread provides a nice cushion.
As for the total, I’m leaning toward the Over 149.5. These teams combine for over 156 points per game on average, and their last meeting easily cleared 150 points. With both defenses ranking lower than their offenses in efficiency, this should be a back-and-forth affair. If you’re looking for value on the futures market, you might want to check the NCAA men’s basketball championship odds to see if any Big West teams are gaining traction as tournament sleepers.
Best Bet: UC Davis +5.5 (-117).
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