Cincinnati Bearcats vs Tarleton State Texans Picks and Predictions December 1st 2025

Game Preview: Tarleton State Texans @ Cincinnati Bearcats

Tarleton State heads into Fifth Third Arena on Monday, December 1, 2025, looking for a statement performance against a Cincinnati program aiming to rebound from a disappointing loss. The Texans appear on the Tarleton State Texans page, while Cincinnati is listed on the Cincinnati Bearcats team page. With Cincinnati favored by -17.5 and the total set at 145.5, this matchup presents stylistic contrasts: Tarleton State’s slow pace against Cincinnati’s high-possession profile. The Bearcats are 5-2 at home and looking to correct offensive inefficiencies, while the Texans have shown flashes of road scoring upside, including a 90-point win at Rice.

This non-conference tilt gives Tarleton State a chance to pressure a Bearcats team that recently struggled to generate rhythm against Eastern Michigan. Cincinnati’s depth and size, however, remain significant matchup edges.

Odds and Key Information

Cincinnati opened as a strong -17.5 favorite with Tarleton State returning heavy plus-money on the moneyline. The total sits at 145.5, influenced by Cincinnati’s pace and the Texans’ efficient scoring rates. Market sentiment reflects skepticism about Cincinnati laying such a large number given recent offensive volatility, while Tarleton State backers point to reliable free-throw metrics and the ability to hang around in slower games.

Cincinnati coach Wes Miller stressed ball movement and better spacing following their loss, citing missed execution in half-court sets. Tarleton State’s staff emphasized rebounding position and tempo control, noting that keeping the game in the half court increases their win probability.

Tarleton State Texans Outlook

Tarleton State enters at 5-3 and trending upward after a 67-57 win over Midwestern State. Jordan Mizell’s efficient 14-point outing and Cam McDowell’s steady two-way contribution highlight a Texans rotation that leans on backcourt versatility. Their offense remains quietly efficient at 76.5 points per game with elite free-throw shooting (79.7 percent, 11th nationally) and an ability to earn frequent trips to the stripe, ranking 20th in makes per game.

Road performance is a relative strength. Their 90-81 victory at Rice featured a 58.6 percent shooting night and a standout effort from Dior Johnson, who posted 29 points and six assists while controlling tempo and generating dribble-drive pressure. Tarleton State excels when forced into grind-it-out games; their 61.2 possessions per game create natural spread value as underdogs.

Defensively, they must contest first-shot attempts and eliminate Cincinnati’s transition windows. Rotational length gives them the tools to disrupt passing lanes, but the margin for error thins against a Big 12 opponent with superior size. Tarleton’s path revolves around disciplined closeouts, plus free-throw volume, and controlled possessions that shorten the game.

Cincinnati Bearcats Outlook

Cincinnati is 6-3 and looking to steady its form after a 64-56 loss to Eastern Michigan. The Bearcats shot inconsistently in that matchup but received productive outings from Day Day Thomas (17 points) and Kerr Kriisa (eight points, six assists). Their earlier 94-67 win over NJIT demonstrates the explosive upside that emerges when their spacing is clean and ball movement creates drive-and-kick opportunities.

The Bearcats average 75.4 points per game and rank 31st nationally in possessions at 72.4. This high-possession environment allows their athletic frontcourt—led by Moustapha Thiam—to generate second-chance opportunities and create vertical spacing. Cincinnati’s 17.4 assists per game underline their reliance on motion offense and multi-handler creation.

Home-court performance remains a stabilizing factor. Their 5-2 record at Fifth Third Arena includes several games where their defensive energy overwhelmed opponents early. Cincinnati is 80 percent straight up as a favorite, reflecting reliable handling of lower-tier opposition.

Defensively, the Bearcats can bother Tarleton State with length at the point of attack and paint protection. Their assignment is to deny free-throw opportunities and convert defensive rebounds into transition scoring.

Key Matchup Table

Key Factor	Advantage
Pace of Play	Cincinnati Bearcats
Free-Throw Efficiency	Tarleton State Texans
Rim Protection	Cincinnati Bearcats
Guard Scoring Consistency	Tarleton State Texans
Rebounding Margin	Cincinnati Bearcats

Betting Trends

Tarleton State has been competitive in underdog roles, particularly when their pace drags opponents below typical scoring thresholds. Their reliable free-throw shooting supports late-game covers.

Cincinnati has covered frequently at home but enters this matchup after shooting poorly in its previous outing. Their games tend to lean under when facing slow-tempo opponents, as higher possession counts drop.

For additional line movement context and board comparison, bettors can use the NCAAB odds page.

The Lean

Model projections suggest Cincinnati wins by a margin narrower than the posted -17.5, due in part to Tarleton State’s free-throw efficiency and pace control. Projection: Cincinnati 79, Tarleton State 67. That supports Tarleton State +17.5 as the stronger spread position.

The total at 145.5 sits above the model projection of 140–142 range. Tarleton State’s slow pace dampens total scoring potential, even if Cincinnati’s offensive talent generates transition spurts. The recommended play is under 145.5.

For broader national previews and matchup insights, readers can visit the NCAAB previews section.

Why You Need Expert Picks

Evaluating pace-driven underdog edges and identifying lines inflated by brand perception are areas where expert handicappers excel. The Handicappers Leaderboard at the college basketball picks page offers verified performance data and sharp-side identification. Advanced projections isolate efficiency mismatches, lineup volatility, and situational edges that casual models may miss.

Additional strategic guidance is available in the NCAAB championship odds guide, helping bettors align market movement with long-term value.

Projected Final Score: Cincinnati Bearcats 79, Tarleton State Texans 67
Best Spread Pick: Tarleton State +17.5
Total Lean: Under 145.5