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Game Preview Florida State @ Florida
The Florida State Seminoles travel to Gainesville to face the Florida Gators in one of college football’s premier in-state rivalries. While the stakes may be different than last year’s 31-11 Florida blowout, both teams still have plenty to play for in this Week 14 showdown.
Florida State (5-6, 3-5 ACC) needs one more win to become bowl eligible. They’ve dropped six of their last eight but still have enough offensive firepower to pull off a road win. Coach Mike Norvell was officially retained for another season, signaling program stability during a tough stretch.
Florida (3-8, 2-6 SEC) is playing for pride after a disappointing season. A win would hand Florida State its seventh loss and cap a miserable campaign for their rivals. Interim coach Billy Gonzales will lean heavily on running back Jadan Baugh, who is nearing the 1,000-yard rushing mark.
More ACC and SEC rivalry previews can be found in our college football picks section.
Discover Where the Sharps Are Betting
Real Trends, Real Edges, Real Wins
Odds and Key Information
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Spread | Florida -1.5 |
| Moneyline | Florida State -109 / Florida -111 |
| Total (O/U) | 50.5 |
| Location | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, FL |
| Time & Date | Saturday, Nov. 29, 4:30 PM ET |
| TV Coverage | ESPN2 |
For updated betting lines, visit the NCAAF scores and odds page.
Florida State Outlook
Despite their recent struggles, the Seminoles have proven they can move the ball with quarterback Tommy Castellanos leading the charge. Castellanos has thrown for 2,520 yards and added 480 on the ground—both team highs.
Wide receiver Duce Robinson has been explosive, racking up 1,021 yards on 53 receptions, including several deep-threat scores. Florida State’s rushing offense ranks 11th nationally with 2,465 yards, and their defense has generated 29 sacks, putting them inside the FBS top 10.
Injuries may affect depth, but the team’s core playmakers remain active, and the Seminoles’ recent box scores show balanced offensive production even in losses.
Check how team form and player injuries influence alternate total points betting.
Florida Outlook
The Gators enter the season finale hoping to spoil Florida State’s bowl dreams. They’ve struggled offensively most of the year, and last week’s 31-11 loss to Tennessee highlighted their lack of explosiveness in the passing game.
Still, running back Jadan Baugh has been a bright spot with 904 rushing yards and eight total touchdowns. Quarterback DJ Lagway has added 1,798 passing yards and 11 TDs but remains inconsistent in vertical throws.
Florida’s defense ranks 8th nationally in takeaways, making them a threat to flip the field and steal possessions. If they can pressure Castellanos into mistakes, the Gators could control the tempo in front of their home crowd.
Looking to capitalize on turnovers? Use our props betting guide for bet types that reward defensive impact.
Key Matchup Table
| Matchup | Edge |
|---|---|
| Rushing Offense | Florida State |
| Passing Offense | Florida State |
| Defensive Takeaways | Florida |
| Special Teams | Even |
| QB Playmaking Ability | Florida State |
| Red Zone Efficiency | Florida |
Betting Trends
- Florida State is 23-7 SU in its last 30 as a favorite.
- Florida is 3-0 to the over in home games this season.
- Florida is 19-10 SU in its last 29 home games.
- Florida State has gone over the total in 3 of its last 5 road games.
- Florida is 17-9 ATS in games with totals over 50 points.
- Florida State is 16-11 SU in similar high-total matchups.
- Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
- Florida State has failed to cover in 4 of its last 6 games.
- The favorite has covered 5 of the last 7 meetings.
For deeper analysis, learn how unit betting strategies reduce risk in rivalry games.
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Prediction
While Florida has the home edge, Florida State enters with more offensive consistency and greater motivation. Castellanos gives the Seminoles a true dual-threat option, and Duce Robinson’s big-play ability can change games in a flash.
Florida will rely heavily on Baugh and hope to win the turnover battle, but unless they significantly slow down Florida State’s rushing attack, the Gators will have difficulty sustaining drives.
Projected Score: Florida State 28, Florida 24
Spread Pick: Florida State +1.5
Total Lean: Over 50.5
Browse more rivalry picks and projections in our NCAAF betting breakdowns.
Why You Need Expert Picks
The Florida State–Florida rivalry is historically unpredictable, especially with one team desperate for bowl eligibility and the other playing spoiler. These matchups demand deeper analysis than the spread implies.
Check the current Handicappers Leaderboard to see who’s trending hot and access our most-read strategy resources:
