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Game Preview – Mississippi State @ Iowa State
The Mississippi State Bulldogs and Iowa State Cyclones meet Monday at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota — a neutral-site venue familiar to Iowa State head coach T.J. Otzelberger. The game marks the 100th Division I contest held at the Pentagon’s Heritage Court and provides both teams with an early test against a ranked opponent in a controlled, defensive environment.
No. 16 Iowa State (2-0) has looked dominant in its opening two games, beating Fairleigh Dickinson and Grambling by a combined 82 points. The Cyclones have displayed balance on both ends, ranking among the national leaders in field goal percentage (53.4%) and turnover differential. Point guard Tamin Lipsey, who has returned from a preseason knee injury, has been a two-way catalyst — averaging 5.0 steals, 5.5 assists, and shooting 60% from the floor.
Mississippi State (1-0) opened its season with an 86-62 win over North Alabama, showing resilience by erasing a second-half deficit. Josh Hubbard led the way with 27 points and eight assists, while transfer guard Ja’Borri McGhee added 14 points off the bench. Coach Chris Jans’ team emphasized defensive rebounding and turnover control, both vital against an Iowa State team that thrives on pressure and transition.
This will be the second neutral-site appearance for Iowa State at the Pentagon and the first for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs won the last meeting between these teams in 2021 by a lopsided 95-56 margin, but both rosters have since undergone significant changes. Monday’s game offers an early benchmark for two programs with March aspirations.
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Line Movement and Odds
Sportsbooks opened Iowa State as a 6.5-point favorite, with a total around 139.5 points. The market has been stable since opening, indicating balanced two-way action. Moneyline odds currently list Iowa State around -270 and Mississippi State near +210.
Public bettors have leaned slightly toward the Cyclones following their high-efficiency start to the season. However, early sharp money has appeared on Mississippi State due to its depth, rebounding profile, and the neutral-site factor reducing home advantage.
| Betting Market | Current Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa State -6.5 / Mississippi State +6.5 |
| Moneyline | Iowa State -270 / Mississippi State +210 |
| Total (O/U) | 139.5 Points |
For bettors assessing neutral-site dynamics, explore the what is a unit in betting guide and alternate total points guide to understand how non-traditional venues affect pace and shooting variance.
Iowa State Outlook
Iowa State’s foundation remains its defense. Through two games, the Cyclones have forced 44 turnovers and limited opponents to 35% shooting. Their perimeter pressure and rotation discipline mirror Otzelberger’s South Dakota State-era teams, which also emphasized high-energy defense and balanced shot selection.
Offensively, the Cyclones are off to a fast start. They’ve averaged 91.5 points through two contests and lead the Big 12 in assist-to-turnover ratio (2.8). Lipsey has been pivotal — not only as a playmaker but also as a defensive disruptor. His 10 steals across the first two games highlight Iowa State’s active hands and anticipatory defense.
Freshman guard Curtis Jones has added consistent spacing, averaging 13.0 points on 45% from three. The frontcourt pairing of Milan Momcilovic and Hason Ward provides rim protection and rebounding, giving the Cyclones balance across all positions.
The biggest test against Mississippi State will be composure in the half-court. The Bulldogs are physical inside and can limit transition looks. Iowa State’s ability to stretch the floor and generate open perimeter shots could determine whether it maintains efficiency away from Hilton Coliseum.
Iowa State Injury Report
All key contributors are active. Tamin Lipsey remains under monitoring for knee management but has shown no visible limitations. The Cyclones will continue rotating nine players, maintaining a balanced minutes distribution.
Mississippi State Outlook
Mississippi State enters this game with an identity built on rebounding and discipline. The Bulldogs outrebounded North Alabama 53-36 and committed just seven turnovers, numbers that reflect Chris Jans’ emphasis on structure and execution.
Josh Hubbard, the SEC’s returning leading scorer at 18.9 points per game, started strong with 27 points in the opener. His quick release and scoring versatility give Mississippi State a go-to option late in possessions. McGhee’s debut provided backcourt depth, while forward Cameron Matthews continues to anchor the defense with rebounding and positional awareness.
The Bulldogs’ strength lies in their depth — 11 players saw minutes in the season opener. That rotation flexibility allows Jans to tailor defensive matchups and sustain tempo. The challenge against Iowa State will be handling full-court pressure and preventing turnovers from turning into quick points.
Mississippi State Injury Report
The Bulldogs have no major injuries. Forward Jimmy Bell Jr., a transfer from West Virginia, remains on limited minutes as he regains conditioning but is expected to be active.
Key Matchup / Path to Victory
The guard battle between Tamin Lipsey and Josh Hubbard will dictate this matchup’s tempo. Lipsey’s defensive tenacity versus Hubbard’s scoring craft presents one of the most intriguing early-season duels in college basketball.
For Iowa State, the path to victory runs through defensive control. If the Cyclones generate turnovers and convert in transition, their athleticism should wear down Mississippi State. Additionally, maintaining composure in half-court sets against a physical defense will be crucial.
For Mississippi State, rebounding and discipline must offset Iowa State’s chaos. The Bulldogs cannot afford to lose the turnover margin by more than a few possessions. If they limit fouls and establish inside scoring through Matthews and Bell, they have the tools to keep it close.
For more on evaluating game tempo and efficiency in handicapping, read how to bet on NBA games and sports betting strategies to win big.
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Betting Trends
- Iowa State is 2-0 ATS this season.
- Mississippi State is 1-0 ATS in 2025.
- The under has hit in four of Iowa State’s last six neutral-site games.
- Mississippi State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog.
- Iowa State has covered seven of its last ten games against non-conference opponents.
- Mississippi State has gone under in five of its last seven games when facing ranked opponents.
Totals bettors can refine their process through the what is live betting guide and props betting guide, which detail market adjustments during in-game swings.
Prediction
This matchup features two programs excelling in discipline and balance. While Iowa State’s defense and transition play give it the edge, Mississippi State’s rebounding and veteran depth make the spread tight. Expect a low-tempo contest dictated by defensive intensity.
Projected Score: Iowa State 72, Mississippi State 66
Best Spread Pick: Mississippi State +6.5
Total Lean: Under 139.5
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