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Table of Contents
Match Facts
| Matchup | Detail |
|---|---|
| Game | Alabama State Hornets at Missouri Tigers |
| Venue | Mizzou Arena, Columbia, Mo. |
| Date | Thursday (nonconference) |
| Records | Missouri 8-2; Alabama State 3-6 |
| Recent Missouri form | Back-to-back losses vs Notre Dame (road) and Kansas (neutral) after 8-0 start |
| Recent Alabama State form | Three straight losses after a 3-3 start; highlight is 77-74 win at UAB |
| Offensive focal point – Mizzou | Mark Mitchell 18.4 ppg; needs more help with Jayden Stone out |
| Offensive focal point – ASU | Guard duo Asjon Anderson 17.9 ppg, Micah Simpson 16.9 ppg |
| Look-ahead spot | Missouri hosts Alabama State before facing Illinois in St. Louis on Dec. 22 |
Line and Odds
- Spread: Missouri projected as a heavy home favorite in the high-teens to low-20s range
- Moneyline: Missouri a clear favorite; Alabama State a sizable underdog
- Total: Projected in the mid-140s, with Missouri’s pace and Alabama State’s scoring guards supporting a moderate total
- Market read: Setup that typically prices a major-conference home side strongly, but Alabama State’s capable backcourt makes pure blowout scripts less automatic
Movement Matchup
This is a classic “reset at home” spot for Missouri after two reality checks. Losses at Notre Dame and to Kansas on a neutral floor exposed the Tigers’ dependence on Mark Mitchell and the lack of consistent secondary scoring, especially with Jayden Stone sidelined by a non-shooting hand injury. The market will still treat Missouri as a comfortable favorite in Columbia, but the way those losses played out – long scoring droughts, poor close to halves, and foul issues for point guard Anthony Robinson II – should keep any number from reaching absurd heights.
Alabama State is a lower-profile SWAC opponent, but the backcourt is legit enough to prevent Missouri from sleepwalking. Asjon Anderson (17.9 ppg) and Micah Simpson (16.9 ppg) can both get going, and Anderson has already hung 30 points in a true-road environment at New Mexico. Books know SWAC teams routinely play “buy” games against bigger programs, but they also know this Hornets group has already beaten UAB on the road and pushed New Mexico. That profile usually buys a little respect on the number even as the public piles onto the SEC favorite.
Missouri’s side of the equation is about identity. Dennis Gates is juggling the rotation – inserting Annor Boateng for Sebastian Mack, still waiting on Trent Pierce’s lingering lower-body injury – and hunting for a lineup that can sustain flow when Mitchell sits or gets targeted. Until that question is answered, you are likely to see some caution baked into high double-digit spreads, even at home. For Alabama State, the market will have to price the risk that their thin front line and heavy guard usage eventually fold under Mizzou’s size and depth.
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Breakdown Injury Reports
Missouri Tigers
| Player | Status | Injury / Note |
|---|---|---|
| Jayden Stone (G) | Out | Non-shooting hand injury; 13.3 ppg sidelined |
| Trent Pierce (F) | Out | Lingering lower-body injury; has yet to play this season |
| Anthony Robinson II (G) | Active | Healthy but battling foul trouble; just 19 points over last four games |
| Sebastian Mack (G) | Active | Recently moved to bench as Gates tweaks the starting group |
Alabama State Hornets
| Player | Status | Injury / Note |
|---|---|---|
| Key injuries | None reported in the provided info | Expect full minutes for core guards Anderson and Simpson |
| Depth | Standard SWAC “buy game” rotation | Heavier load on backcourt; frontcourt depth is a concern vs high-major size |
Missouri Tigers recent performance
Missouri’s 8-2 record hides a more fragile reality than the raw win-loss mark suggests. The Tigers have just taken back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Kansas in which their offensive limitations were laid bare. Mark Mitchell continues to do his part with 18.4 points per game, but the help is inconsistent. Stone’s hand injury removes the most reliable secondary scorer. Jacob Crews is giving 13.8 points off the bench, but he’s the only other double-digit scorer, and relying on a bench microwave as your de facto No. 2 option is risky.
The backcourt issues are more structural than one bad night. Robinson’s foul trouble has killed offensive continuity, with only 19 total points across his last four games. Gates has already reacted by shuffling the starting lineup, inserting Boateng in place of Mack against Kansas. Pierce, projected as a key forward, still hasn’t touched the floor with the lingering lower-body issue. Put it together and you get exactly what Mitchell described: a team that struggles to adjust when opponents change coverages and one that fails to close halves with composure.
Against Alabama State, Missouri has an opportunity to reset its rhythm at home, but the underlying themes won’t magically vanish. They need more than a Mitchell bail-out game. They need guards who can stay on the floor, make clean entry passes, and attack closeouts without picking up cheap fouls. If they can’t show that here, it’s a red flag heading into Illinois.
Alabama State Hornets recent performance
Alabama State is 3-6 and riding a three-game losing streak, but their season has already produced a clear high point and a defined identity. The 77-74 win at UAB on Nov. 11 proved the Hornets can go into a tough building and compete. The 93-87 loss at New Mexico, where Anderson dropped 30, showed they can hang on the scoreboard against quality offenses when their guards are cooking.
This is not last year’s NCAA Tournament roster. Much of that key talent is gone, and Tony Madlock is rebuilding around a potent backcourt rather than a balanced, veteran rotation. Anderson and Simpson are the engines, and everything flows from their ability to create off the dribble, get downhill, and hit enough perimeter shots to keep defenses honest. That guard-heavy structure fits the SWAC reality Madlock laid out after the UAB game: you go on the road, you play money games, and you grind against bigger, deeper rosters for a check and for growth.
The flip side is obvious: with size and depth skewed toward the perimeter, Alabama State can get worn down physically over 40 minutes against high-major front lines. Defensive rebounding and foul trouble inside are constant concerns. If Simpson or Anderson has an off night, there isn’t much margin for error. But if both are on and Missouri continues to search for offensive rhythm, this doesn’t have to be a 40-minute layup line for the favorite.
Betting Insights and Trends
From a betting angle, this game pits a high-major favorite with clear structural questions against a SWAC underdog that has already proven it can punch above its weight in the right spot. Missouri’s 8-2 record and home court will draw attention to the favorite, but the last two losses highlighted exactly why double-digit spreads are dangerous here: an over-reliance on one scorer, foul-heavy point-guard play, and inconsistent close to halves.
Alabama State’s 3-6 record won’t excite casual bettors, but weighing the context changes the picture. Wins and competitive efforts at UAB and New Mexico tell you the Hornets’ guard play travels, and Madlock clearly understands how to get his team ready psychologically for these pay-check road games. The problem is stringing 40 solid minutes together defensively and on the glass.
Because of those cross-currents, the spread range matters more than usual. In the mid-teens, you can justify trusting Missouri’s talent, depth and home whistle to eventually break Alabama State’s resistance. As the number climbs toward or beyond the low-20s, you’re asking a flawed offense to post a wire-to-wire blowout against a loose, fearless underdog with real guard scoring. That’s the kind of profile you should be cross-checking closely against comparable spots on the college basketball picks board rather than treating it like an automatic lay-it-and-forget-it favorite.
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Best Bets and Prediction
Projected final score: Missouri 81, Alabama State 65
This script assumes Missouri uses the home floor and matchup to get right offensively without entirely solving the underlying problems. Mitchell should be able to score efficiently against a smaller front line, and Crews is well-positioned to continue his bench production against a thinner rotation. If Robinson can simply stay out of foul trouble, the Tigers should find enough offensive structure to push into the low-80s.
Alabama State’s guards are good enough to prevent this from becoming a total annihilation. Anderson and Simpson should both get their numbers, particularly early, and the Hornets have already shown they can hit shots in hostile environments. Over 40 minutes, though, the lack of size and depth – and the cumulative wear of Missouri’s size and physicality – should show up in the form of late-game separation. A mid-teens margin fits that story line: competitive stretches, then Mizzou pulls away.
Handicapper section
This matchup is all about price tolerance. Missouri is the right side to win the game and is in a logical “buy low” spot off two losses, but the Tigers’ current offensive profile makes them a fragile heavy favorite. You’re asking a team still searching for a secondary scorer, with foul-prone point-guard play and key injuries (Stone and Pierce), to cash a big number against a hungry underdog with a live backcourt. That’s not unplayable, but it’s not as clean as the record suggests.
Alabama State brings a guard-driven, upset-capable style into a game where the pressure is entirely on the home side. The Hornets’ ability to hang depends on how well Anderson and Simpson handle Missouri’s physicality and how much damage they take on the glass and from foul trouble inside. If you’re grabbing points, you’re banking on those guards keeping the Hornets within striking distance long enough to cover a number in the high-teens or above.
Within a broader college slate, this profile works best as a number-sensitive play: you lean Missouri in the mid-teens, become much more interested in Alabama State as the dog if the spread inflates, and always anchor your final decision against how other spots on the board line up according to the principles in the college section of the NBA crossover expert betting guide and the long-range college basketball championship odds outlook.
