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Match Facts
Sam Houston heads to Las Cruces for a Conference USA matchup with New Mexico State at the Pan American Center on Sunday, December 21, 2025 (4:00 PM ET). This game profiles as a pace clash: Sam Houston has been winning with offense and glass work, while New Mexico State has leaned on home-court control and a slower, more physical style.
If you’re tracking the matchup alongside the broader slate, the quickest reference points are the live NCAAB matchup hub at college basketball teams and the updated college basketball scores and odds board, which are useful for confirming late movement and market splits.
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Line and Odds
- Spread: Sam Houston +5.5, New Mexico State -5.5
- Moneyline: Sam Houston +185, New Mexico State -210
- Total: 155.5
The current number is telling you the market respects New Mexico State’s home edge and expects Sam Houston’s efficiency to come down at least a little in a road environment. With Sam Houston capable of scoring in bunches, the total is priced for points, but it’s still vulnerable if New Mexico State dictates tempo and turns this into more half-court possessions than Sam Houston prefers.
Movement Matchup
The spread has moved meaningfully toward New Mexico State. The opener showed New Mexico State -2.5 before climbing through key steps (around -3.5 and -4.5) and landing at -5.5 closer to tip. That kind of push typically reflects either matchup-driven money (pace control, rebounding, home splits) or bettors anticipating Sam Houston’s offense meeting a tougher shot diet on the road.
If you want the cleanest way to follow the market in real time as it relates to actual wagers, pairing the live number with the broader college basketball picks page helps you see where consensus opinions are landing across the slate.
Breakdown Injury Reports
Sam Houston
| Player | Status | Injury | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| None reported | — | — | No injuries reported |
New Mexico State
| Player | Status | Injury | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| None reported | — | — | No injuries reported |
Sam Houston Recent performance
Sam Houston comes in 7-3 and just beat Oregon State 85-75, which fits the identity they’ve shown most often: steady scoring pressure plus second-chance creation. Veljko Ilic’s double-double impact (rim work, rebounds, cleanup finishes) matters in this matchup because it’s the most direct way to travel offensively when jumpers flatten out. The Bearkats’ scoring ceiling is also supported by their ability to keep possessions alive and live at the line, which are two road-friendly traits when rhythm offense is harder to sustain.
The other practical angle is shot volume. Sam Houston has been comfortable playing games where they get into the 80s, and that forces opponents to answer possessions instead of walking the ball up and bleeding clock. If they can get early offense and avoid empty trips, they can keep this in a range where the plus points matter.
New Mexico State Recent performance
New Mexico State is 6-3 and has played strong at home (4-1). Even in the 83-70 loss to Tulsa, the Aggies had enough functional offense to stay connected, and that’s important here because the goal against Sam Houston isn’t necessarily to win a track meet—it’s to control the game’s shape. Jemel Jones has been the consistent scoring engine, and the Aggies tend to look better when they’re not forced into quick shots that fuel opponent transition.
At home, New Mexico State’s comfort level shows up in shot selection and defensive rebounding discipline. If they finish possessions cleanly and keep Sam Houston out of scramble situations, they’ll make the Bearkats earn points deeper into the clock, which is where underdogs can struggle to keep pace.
Betting Insights and Trends
The matchup basically comes down to two levers: possessions and rebounding. Sam Houston wants enough tempo to let its offense breathe and create volume scoring chances, while New Mexico State’s best path is controlling pace, minimizing transition, and keeping Sam Houston to one shot. If New Mexico State wins the defensive glass, it also limits Sam Houston’s most reliable “travel” offense—put-backs and foul pressure.
From a market perspective, the spread move toward New Mexico State suggests bettors are projecting the Aggies’ home profile to translate into control, not just a narrow win. That doesn’t automatically mean the favorite is “right,” but it does raise the bar for Sam Houston: the Bearkats probably need to win the effort categories (rebounds/FT attempts) or spike efficiency to beat the number.
For a broader framework on how to approach totals, spreads, and game scripts like this one, the college basketball betting guide is a useful reference point for translating matchup edges into bet type selection.
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Best Bets and Prediction
Best bet: Under 155.5
This number assumes Sam Houston’s offense hits close to its comfort zone, but New Mexico State has a clear incentive to shorten the game—home control, fewer transition chances allowed, and a heavier half-court script. If the Aggies succeed at turning this into longer possessions and cleaner defensive rebounding, the total can slip even if New Mexico State plays efficiently, because the possession count is what keeps high totals alive.
Prediction: New Mexico State wins, Sam Houston keeps it competitive enough to matter late if the Bearkats generate second-chance points and get to the line, but the best value angle is the pace-driven under.
Handicapper section
Handicapper-style approach for this matchup is straightforward: align your bet type to the script you expect. If you expect New Mexico State to control tempo and rebounding, the under is the cleanest exposure. If you expect Sam Houston’s scoring to travel (free throws + extra possessions), the spread is the more direct way to express it. For additional angle coverage across the card—especially as numbers move during the day—checking the updated college basketball picks page alongside long-range context like college basketball championship odds helps keep single-game positions consistent with the bigger season picture.
