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Game Preview UL Monroe @ Ole Miss
The UL Monroe Warhawks travel to Oxford to face the Ole Miss Rebels on Friday night at The Pavilion, where Ole Miss looks to build on an 88-58 win over Southeastern Louisiana in its opener.
Chris Beard’s Rebels showcased flashes of dominance despite early growing pains from a roster featuring eight new transfers. After falling behind early, Ole Miss used a 24–8 run to take control by halftime and coasted in the second half. Malik Dia led the way with 20 points, AJ Storr added 18, and James Scott anchored the frontcourt with nine rebounds and three blocks.
Beard acknowledged that the team is still sorting out chemistry and rotations, but the performance on the boards stood out — Ole Miss outrebounded Southeastern Louisiana 44–26. That edge will again be key against UL Monroe, which was crushed 44–18 on the glass in a 102–82 loss at Northern Illinois.
The Warhawks, under first-year coach Phil Cunningham, bring in a young, largely new roster. Junior college transfer Krystian Lewis scored 22 points in his debut, but the lack of cohesion and frontcourt presence cost them second-chance points and transition defense. Beard’s veteran lineup will look to exploit those weaknesses while refining offensive structure.
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Odds and Key Information
Ole Miss enters as a heavy favorite at home, with a spread hovering around -26.5. The total is set at 151.5, reflecting expectations for a high-tempo, offense-heavy matchup.
| Key Betting Line | Value |
|---|---|
| Spread | Ole Miss -26.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | Ole Miss -8000 / UL Monroe +3000 |
| Total | 151.5 O/U |
| Venue | The Pavilion at Ole Miss, Oxford, MS |
| Time | 8:00 PM ET (SEC Network) |
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Ole Miss Outlook
The Rebels’ first impression under Beard’s revamped lineup was uneven but promising. Their size and athleticism overwhelmed Southeastern Louisiana once the rotation settled. Malik Dia’s 20 points on 8-of-12 shooting highlighted frontcourt efficiency, while AJ Storr’s off-ball scoring gave the Rebels much-needed versatility.
Defensively, Ole Miss created 14 turnovers and held opponents to 36 percent shooting. However, the biggest difference came on the glass — a +18 rebound margin and 17 offensive boards. That emphasis on physicality will again define their approach, especially against a smaller UL Monroe squad.
Beard’s blueprint appears consistent with the controlled tempo and possession-focused style detailed in sports betting strategies to win big: prioritize rebounding, create extra shots, and let defense fuel transition offense.
UL Monroe Outlook
The Warhawks opened their season with energy but struggled to sustain it. After a hot start against Northern Illinois, defensive breakdowns and rebounding woes quickly unraveled their effort. Krystian Lewis emerged as a bright spot with 22 points, but beyond that, production was scattered.
UL Monroe’s roster features three returning players and several junior college transfers still adapting to Division I pace. Coach Cunningham emphasized that development and chemistry are priorities in November. Still, the team’s inability to contest rebounds and defend in transition will make this matchup daunting.
The Warhawks may try to push pace and create chaos defensively, but their -26 rebound differential from the opener underlines a mismatch against Ole Miss’s physical frontcourt. Teams in this profile often trend toward unders, as discussed in alternate total points, when offensive consistency isn’t yet established.
Key Matchup Table
| Statistical Category | Edge |
|---|---|
| Field Goal % | Ole Miss (52.8%) |
| Rebounding Margin | Ole Miss (+18) |
| 3PT Shooting | Ole Miss (36.4%) |
| Turnovers Forced | Ole Miss (14 per game) |
| Bench Depth | Ole Miss |
The boards will likely decide the outcome — Ole Miss’s interior strength versus UL Monroe’s thin frontcourt.
Betting Trends
Ole Miss is 1-0 straight up and against the spread this season, having covered comfortably as a 20-point favorite in its opener. The Rebels have also gone under in six of their last nine games versus nonconference opponents, reflecting slower tempo adjustments under new coaching.
UL Monroe has failed to cover in six straight nonconference road games and is 2-8 ATS versus Power Six opponents since 2022. However, they have gone over the total in four of their last five games when allowing 85+ points.
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Prediction
Ole Miss’s physicality, size, and depth should dominate the glass and dictate tempo. Expect Beard’s team to start more efficiently as chemistry develops, with Dia and Storr continuing to anchor the offense. UL Monroe’s transition defense could again crumble under sustained pressure.
Projected Score: Ole Miss 90, UL Monroe 62
Spread Pick: Ole Miss -26.5
Total Lean: Under 151.5
The Rebels’ rebounding advantage and improved offensive rhythm should lead to another decisive home win, though the margin may stabilize late once reserves enter.
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Early-season mismatches like this often hide sharp totals and first-half value. The Handicappers Leaderboard tracks verified experts modeling tempo, injuries, and efficiency ratings.
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