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MAAC basketball heads to the Alumni Gymnasium this Friday as the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers visit the Rider Broncs. Tip-off is set for 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+. The Mountaineers arrive in Lawrenceville with an 11-15 record, fresh off an impressive 83-76 win over Iona. Rider, meanwhile, has suffered through a dismal 3-20 campaign and enters this contest desperate to protect their home floor after a lopsided 73-47 loss to Merrimack. While the records suggest a mismatch, conference play in February often produces tight, ugly games where home-court desperation plays a major role.
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Mount St. Mary’s is currently a 5.5-point road favorite, with the total sitting at 141.5. This is a significant number for a Mountaineers team that has struggled to a 5-10 record on the road this season. Rider’s lone bright spots have mostly come at home, where they have managed all three of their wins this year. For bettors, the question is whether Mount St. Mary’s recent offensive surge is sustainable or if Rider can turn this into a low-possession grind.
Mount St. Mary’s vs Rider Odds
The betting lines for this matchup reflect Mount St. Mary’s superior offensive efficiency and Rider’s season-long struggles to score. Bettors should check the latest college basketball odds as tip-off approaches, as the spread has seen some slight movement in early trading.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Mount St. Mary’s | -240 | -5.5 (-105) | O 141.5 (-110) |
| Rider | +185 | +5.5 (-121) | U 141.5 (-110) |
Mount St. Mary’s Betting Form
The Mountaineers have been playing better basketball of late, largely thanks to the emergence of their frontcourt. Luke McEldon has been highly efficient, shooting 62.1% from the floor, while Abdou Khadre Kebe is coming off a massive 16-rebound performance against Iona. When the Mount can control the glass and get second-chance points, they are a much more dangerous team than their sub-.500 record suggests. Arlandus Keyes remains the primary perimeter threat, averaging 11.8 points and leading the team in made threes.
Despite their 11-15 mark, the Mountaineers have actually been a solid bet lately, covering in eight of their 15 road games. They play at a deliberate pace but can be prone to turnovers, averaging over 15 giveaways per contest—a mark that ranks near the bottom of Division I. If they can value the ball in a hostile road environment, their talent should win out. You can dive deeper into their situational trends on the Mount St. Mary’s stats and results page. Also, make sure to monitor the Mount St. Mary’s injury report before locking in any plays, as their depth in the backcourt has been tested.
Rider Betting Form
It has been a long season for the Broncs, who rank 359th in the country in field goal percentage (39.7%). They simply lack consistent playmakers outside of sophomore Flash Burton, who carries a heavy load with 14.6 points and 3.0 assists per game. When Burton isn’t hitting, the offense tends to stall completely. Caleb Smith provides some much-needed toughness inside, averaging 7.1 rebounds, but Rider’s inability to stretch the floor (only 4.4 made threes per game) makes them very easy to scout.
However, the Broncs have been a different team at the Alumni Gymnasium. They are 3-7 at home versus 0-13 on the road, and they recently knocked off Saint Peter’s in this building by shooting a season-high 50% from the field. I think they’ll try to shorten this game by milking the shot clock and turning it into a physical, defensive battle. For a look at how they perform as home underdogs, visit the Rider schedule and stats page. Be sure to check the Rider injury report to see if their rotation is at full strength, as a single absence can cripple their thin scoring depth.
Mount St. Mary’s vs Rider Matchup Breakdown
The pace of play will be the deciding factor here. Mount St. Mary’s wants to utilize their superior size and rebounding to create easy looks, while Rider needs to force the Mountaineers into a sloppy, high-turnover game to stand a chance. Mount St. Mary’s allows opponents to shoot just 40.8% from the floor, which is one of the better defensive marks in the MAAC. Against a Rider offense that already struggles to make shots, this could lead to long scoring droughts for the home team.
- Rebounding Dominance: Mount St. Mary’s is a +2.9 on the glass this season. If McEldon and Kebe dominate the boards, Rider won’t get the second-chance opportunities they need to stay competitive.
- Turnover Trouble: The Mountaineers cough it up 15.5 times per game. Rider’s best path to an upset is pressure defense that leads to transition layups for Burton.
- Three-Point Variance: Mount St. Mary’s hits nearly eight triples per game compared to just four for Rider. If the Mountaineers are even league-average from deep, the math becomes very difficult for the Broncs.
For those looking to sharpen their mid-major betting skills, checking out a college basketball betting guide can help identify why road favorites in these spots are often overvalued by the public.
Mount St. Mary’s vs Rider Predictions and Best Bets
While I understand the lean toward the home underdog in a conference rivalry spot, Rider’s offensive metrics are just too poor to ignore. Mount St. Mary’s is the significantly better defensive team, and they have the size inside to negate Rider’s rebounding efforts. I think the Mountaineers’ victory over Iona wasn’t a fluke but rather a sign that this team is finally finding its identity late in the season. The 5.5-point spread is a fair number, but the real value is on the total.
Both teams rank in the bottom tier of offensive efficiency and play at a pace that suggests a low-scoring affair. Rider’s inability to score consistently combined with Mount St. Mary’s tendency to play long possessions points directly to the under. I think the model’s projection of 131 points is much closer to reality than the market’s 141.5. Perhaps Burton gets his points, but I don’t see where the rest of the scoring comes from for the Broncs.
Best Bet: Under 141.5 (-112).
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