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Table of Contents
Match Facts
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Matchup | Morgan State Bears vs San Francisco Dons |
| Date | Sunday, December 21, 2025 |
| Time | 6:00 PM ET |
| Venue | War Memorial Gymnasium |
| Location | San Francisco, California |
| Game type | Non-conference (MEAC vs WCC) |
| Broadcast | ESPN+ |
| Records | Morgan State: 2-9 |
| Road/Home split | Morgan State road: 0-5 |
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Stats That Turn Insight Into Profit
For more matchups and pricing across the slate, visit the college basketball picks hub and the live NCAAB odds and lines.
Line and Odds
| Market | Morgan State | San Francisco |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +26.5 (-110) | -26.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +3750 | -20000 |
| Total | Over 147.5 (-115) | Under 147.5 (-105) |
Movement Matchup
This line is telling you the market expects a one-way script at home, with San Francisco’s efficiency creating separation early and the margin building through the middle of the game. At -26.5, you’re not handicapping who wins, you’re handicapping whether Morgan State can avoid extended scoreless stretches and whether San Francisco keeps the foot down for 40 minutes.
Key number-wise, anything north of 27 makes the dog more attractive because one late run, empty bench minutes, or a slower second half can derail a cover for a big favorite. On the total, 147.5 is high relative to the model projection and the pace note in the raw data, so the under becomes more appealing if the number rises.
If you want a cleaner framework for dealing with big spreads and totals sensitivity, the betting guide is the best reference point.
Breakdown Injury Reports
Morgan State
| Player | Position | Status | Impact note |
|---|---|---|---|
| None | N/A | No major injuries reported | No expected rotation limitation |
San Francisco
| Player | Position | Status | Impact note |
|---|---|---|---|
| None | N/A | No major injuries reported | No expected rotation limitation |
Morgan State Recent performance
Morgan State is trying to reset after a difficult matchup against California. Christian Oliver led with 14 points on efficient shooting, and Rob Lawson added 11 points with eight assists, which matters because the Bears need ball security and shot quality to survive long road stretches.
The most actionable strength in their profile is free-throw creation. They’re making 17.8 free throws per game (top-100 nationally), and that can keep a big spread live if they can consistently get to the line and turn half-court trips into points. The proof-of-concept game is the Niagara win, where multiple scorers produced and the offense didn’t rely on one hot hand.
If you want more context across the slate, the NCAAB teams hub is the fastest way to compare profiles.
San Francisco Recent performance
San Francisco comes in off an 85-71 home win over Loyola Chicago, powered by Tyrone Riley IV (22) and David Fuchs (20). The Dons have been at their best at home, winning five of seven, and their offense has enough spacing to create clean looks rather than forcing tough midrange possessions.
Efficiency is the separator. San Francisco’s effective field goal percentage (54.3%) and perimeter volume (9.9 made threes per game) give them multiple ways to break a game open. If they’re defending without fouling and finishing possessions, the floor outcome is comfortable, and the ceiling is a runaway.
Betting Insights and Trends
Big spreads hinge on game texture more than raw quality. Morgan State’s path to covering +26.5 is simple: generate free throws, avoid live-ball turnovers, and prevent San Francisco from stringing together back-to-back threes that create a quick 12–2 run.
San Francisco’s path to covering is about tempo and focus. If the Dons play with pace and keep their shot quality high, they can reach the 80s again, and Morgan State’s road profile makes it hard to trade buckets for long. For the total, the pace note and the model total (133) point strongly toward under value unless this turns into an unusually fast game.
For a broader market view on the season, college basketball championship odds is a useful reference point.
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Best Bets and Prediction
The model makes the total the clearest edge.
Best bet: Under 147.5 (-105)
Projected score: San Francisco 78, Morgan State 55 (Total 133)
The model margin (23) is inside the number, and Morgan State’s free-throw profile is the best lever for staying within a big spread even if the game is not competitive on the scoreboard.
Handicapper section
Today’s pick is one angle. The real edge is tracking who’s actually producing profit over time. Head to the handicapper leaderboard to see the top-performing cappers, sort by ROI and profit, and follow the hottest streaks before the market adjusts.
If you want to compare their card for this slate, jump into the college basketball picks hub and line shop on the live NCAAB odds and lines.
