Texas State Bobcats vs Troy Trojans Picks and Predictions December 31st 2025

Texas State Bobcats vs Troy Trojans Picks and Predictions – December 31, 2025

Texas State heads into hostile territory to face Troy at Trojan Arena in a Sun Belt matchup tipping off at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, December 31, 2025. The Bobcats enter at 4–9 and continue to slide offensively. Troy, on the other hand, is 9–4 and unbeaten at home, where they’ve covered consistently this season. With both teams opening conference play, expect a physical contest — but oddsmakers clearly favor the home side.

The Trojans are currently laying -9.5 (-101), with Texas State sitting at +9.5 (-119). Moneyline prices reflect the gap: Troy -425, Texas State +325. The total is 143.5 — somewhat elevated given the Bobcats’ pace, but reflective of Troy’s scoring bursts.

Texas State Bobcats vs Troy Trojans Odds

These are the current betting lines. Always check the latest college basketball odds for any late movement, especially on totals or injury-driven steam.

Team	Moneyline	Spread	Total
Texas State	+325	+9.5 (-119)	O 143.5 (-110)
Troy	-425	-9.5 (-101)	U 143.5 (-110)

Texas State Bobcats Betting Form

Texas State’s identity is built around defense, rebounding, and deliberate pace — but that only gets you so far when the offense ranks in the bottom 20% of D-I in scoring. The Bobcats have lacked consistent guard play, turn it over too often against pressure, and shoot under 30% from three. Their halfcourt execution is sluggish, and they’re not built to chase leads.

That said, they defend decently. Texas State limits second-chance points and usually keeps opponents off the foul line. But on the road, this team has trailed by double digits in 6 of 7 games, which makes the spread dangerous even in slow games.

See full team data on the Texas State stats and results, and be sure to check for late scratches on the Texas State injury report.

Troy Trojans Betting Form

Troy’s offense is fast, aggressive, and multidimensional. The Trojans attack early in the shot clock, shoot over 36% from three at home, and force turnovers that lead directly to transition points. They’ve averaged 81.5 PPG at home this season and tend to pull away with runs in both halves.

On defense, they pressure the ball and crash the boards — two areas where Texas State tends to break down. While Troy can be foul-prone, they have the depth to survive it and the ability to flip momentum quickly with their second unit. They’re 6–0 SU at Trojan Arena with four ATS wins by double digits.

Review their full Troy schedule and stats and stay updated on any absences via the Troy injury report.

Texas State Bobcats vs Troy Trojans Matchup Breakdown

This matchup is about control — Troy pushes pace and tempo, while Texas State drags everything into a crawl. The problem for the Bobcats is that Troy’s defensive pressure is going to force tempo no matter what. When Texas State is sped up, their turnover rate spikes and their offense collapses.

Key matchup notes:
Troy forces 16+ turnovers per game — Texas State’s guards are vulnerable
The Trojans have a major FT rate edge (+6.1 differential)
Texas State’s offense has failed to hit 65 points in 5 of their last 6 road games
Troy averages 81+ PPG at home with 38% shooting from deep

Unless the Bobcats shoot well above expectation or Troy comes out cold, this has double-digit margin written all over it.

Need help analyzing tempo and pace-based mismatches? Start with our college basketball betting guide to develop sharper reads on totals and team profiles.

Texas State Bobcats vs Troy Trojans Predictions and Best Bets

Troy is simply the better team — and more importantly, they’re built to break opponents like Texas State. They force mistakes, play fast, and finish games strong. The number may look high, but Troy has covered similar spreads all year at home. Laying -9.5 isn’t cheap, but it’s the right side.

As for the total, 143.5 sits right on the edge. If Troy scores 80+ again and Texas State gives even modest resistance, the Over hits. Lean that way, but it’s not the core play.

Best Bet: Troy -9.5 (-101)

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