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The Mercury Can Win If Momentum Carries Them
The Phoenix Mercury are locked into the No. 4 seed and head into the final game with confidence. Even in their 88‑83 loss to the Sparks, they leaned on Alyssa Thomas, who posted her eighth triple‑double of the season with 10 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists. That kind of all‑around performance sets the tone when ducks need to be in a row. If the starters come out sharp for Phoenix, they can control tempo and extend possessions that tire out Dallas.
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The Wings Can Win If They Play Free and Feed Off Role Players
The Dallas Wings may have nothing to gain in the standings, but there’s value in pride and momentum. Rookie Paige Bueckers leads the team with 19.1 points per game, and Myisha Hines‑Allen has routinely delivered double‑digit scoring and rebounding. If these and other supporting players step up—especially off turnovers or sloppy defense from Phoenix—the Wings could keep it close or even pull off a surprise.
The Lean
- Pick: Mercury straight up
- Projected Score: Mercury 90, Wings 75
- Best Bet: Over 160 – both teams have shown scoring bursts lately, especially when Phoenix gives minutes to its reserves
For additional picks, check our WNBA Picks page at the end of the article.
Expanded Analysis
Alyssa Thomas’ presence is more than just stats—it’s stability. Her triple‑doubles have become a barometer for Phoenix’s energy. Even when she doesn’t lead in scoring, her ability to affect all facets (rebounds, assists, defense) gives Phoenix consistency. Coupled with bench players who showed potential recently, they’re poised to close out the regular season strong.
Dallas’ Rookie Surge, But Inconsistent Support
Paige Bueckers has been a bright spot in an otherwise tough season, leading in scoring, assists, and steals. But the Wings have lost their last 10, and consistency has been rare. Their supporting cast needs to show up with energy, especially in transition and on defense, for them to avoid a blowout.
Motivation Levels Differ
With Phoenix settled in the playoffs, they can afford to manage minutes but also want to finish with rhythm. Dallas has nothing but pride on the line, which sometimes leads to loose play—but also opportunities. A motivated underdog can be dangerous, especially when the favorite relaxes too early.
To view live odds and see where the betting public is leaning, visit our WNBA Scores & Odds page.
FAQs
What seed will Phoenix have in the playoffs?
They are locked into the No. 4 seed and will face the defending champion New York Liberty in the first round.
Has Dallas beaten Phoenix this season?
Yes—Dallas has captured one of the three games played against the Mercury this year.
Who has been the standout performer?
Alyssa Thomas leads with multiple triple‑doubles; Paige Bueckers is leading the Wings in scoring and assists.
What is the best betting angle?
Mercury ML and the Over look like solid plays, given Phoenix’s depth and Wings’ defensive lapses.
Where can I find more expert WNBA content?
Check out our full breakdowns on the Expert Betting Guide section.
