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Aces vs Mercury Prediction: MVP Duel as Wilson, Thomas Collide in Phoenix
The Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury square off Friday night in a matchup loaded with star power — and MVP implications. Reigning MVP A’ja Wilson faces top challenger Alyssa Thomas for the third time this season, with both teams sitting in the top four of their respective conferences.
Make Every Play Count
Game-day advice inside
Key Game Information
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Sport | Basketball (WNBA) |
| Teams | Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury |
| Venue | Footprint Center — Phoenix, AZ |
| Date/Time | Friday, August 15, 2025 — 10:00 PM ET |
| Betting Odds | Aces -2.5, Mercury +2.5, O/U 167.5 |
Las Vegas Aces Can Win If…
The Aces enter with five straight wins, most recently knocking off defending champion New York 83-77. A’ja Wilson posted 17 points and 16 rebounds in that win, dominating the glass in crunch time with seven boards in the fourth quarter alone.
Bench spark plug Jewell Loyd has thrived in her sixth-woman role, averaging 15.5 points off the bench since the shift, and the Aces are 7-1 in that stretch. Las Vegas will need Wilson’s inside presence, Loyd’s perimeter scoring, and continued defensive intensity to contain Thomas’s all-around game.
Phoenix Mercury Can Win If…
Phoenix had a three-game winning streak snapped by Atlanta on Sunday, but they’ve been one of the league’s most consistent teams at home. Alyssa Thomas leads the WNBA in assists (9.0 apg) while adding 16.1 points and 8.7 rebounds per game. Her recent triple-double streak — three straight — showcased her ability to impact every aspect of the game.
For the Mercury to win, they’ll need strong shooting support around Thomas, especially from deep threats like Diana Taurasi and Sophie Cunningham, while matching the Aces’ physicality in the paint.
Key WNBA Betting Trends
| Trend Type | Las Vegas Aces | Phoenix Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Current Form | Won 5 straight | Lost last game |
| Head-to-Head | Split season series 1–1 | Split season series 1–1 |
| Points Per Game Rank | 3rd (85.4) | 6th (83.1) |
| Opponent PPG Rank | 6th (80.2) | 7th (80.9) |
| FG% Rank | 5th (.444) | 7th (.440) |
| Rebounding Rank | 3rd (36.4) | 8th (34.2) |
The Lean
This game is a potential playoff preview and another chapter in the MVP race. Wilson’s dominance inside and Loyd’s scoring versatility give Las Vegas a slight edge, even on the road.
Pick: Aces -2.5
Projected Score: Aces 88, Mercury 83
O/U Lean: Over 167.5 — Both teams have top-six offenses and star power capable of big scoring nights.
For more basketball analysis, check out our WNBA Previews!
