Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Predictions October 8th 2025

Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Basketball Wed, Oct 8, 19:00 pm.
Phoenix Mercury
ML: -190
0
0
Las Vegas Aces
ML: 160
Last Updated on

PHOENIX — The Las Vegas Aces defended home court to take an early lead in the WNBA Finals. To stay alive, the Phoenix Mercury must respond as the series moves to Footprint Center for Game 3 on Wednesday night.

Four-time MVP A’ja Wilson and the Aces carry a 2-0 series edge after dominant back-to-back performances in Las Vegas. Game 4 of the league’s first best-of-seven Finals is set for Friday.

Coach Becky Hammon said her team’s mindset remains focused on consistency: “You just don’t want to have a satisfied locker room. We’re supposed to take care of our home court. The process is equipping you for what’s next.”

Wilson powered the Game 2 win with 28 points and 14 rebounds, while Jackie Young added 32. The Aces outscored Phoenix 29-16 in the second quarter and led by as many as 22 in the fourth during a 91-78 victory.

Kahleah Copper scored 23 and Satou Sabally added 22 for Phoenix, but the Mercury shot 40.8 percent overall and 5-of-28 from three. Alyssa Thomas was limited by foul trouble and finished with 10 points.

The Aces have won 23 of their last 26 games, while the Mercury have survived multiple elimination rounds on the road. Both teams bring resilience and playoff experience into Wednesday’s must-win matchup.

For more coverage of the championship series, visit the WNBA previews page

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Line Movement and Odds

According to the WNBA odds board, Las Vegas opened around -7.5 on the road, with the total near 170. Early sharp money backed Phoenix slightly, trimming the spread to -7 at most books. The Aces’ moneyline sits near -320, while the Mercury are priced around +250.

Public bettors continue to ride the Aces, who have covered in five of their last six playoff games. The total has leaned to the Over after both previous Finals games finished above 170 points.

Matchup Breakdown

Las Vegas Outlook: The Aces’ small-ball rotations have created space for Wilson to dominate inside. Their ball movement and pace have kept Phoenix scrambling defensively. Las Vegas ranks first in postseason scoring and second in assists per game.

Phoenix Outlook: The Mercury need improved perimeter defense and rebounding. Copper remains their best scoring option, but they’ll need Thomas and Sabally to stay active without fouling. Expect Phoenix to emphasize physical defense and half-court execution.

For more betting analysis and market insights, check the expert betting guide

Injuries and Conditions

Las Vegas Aces: No significant injuries reported. See full details on the Aces injury report

Phoenix Mercury: Alyssa Thomas (foul management) and Natasha Cloud (ankle) are expected to play through minor issues. See updates on the Mercury injury report

The game is indoors at Footprint Center, so weather will not be a factor.

Best Bets and Prediction

Las Vegas continues to prove too efficient on both ends. Phoenix will likely show early energy at home but may struggle to sustain offense if the Aces dictate tempo.

Trend: Aces are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.
Projected Score: Aces 89, Mercury 81
Best Bet: Aces -7
Lean: Over 170

You can find additional betting perspectives and player props in the WNBA picks section

ScoresAndStats Handicappers and Picks

Before locking in your Game 3 wagers, visit the handicapper leaderboard to see who’s hot, explore service plays from verified experts, and browse our free WNBA picks and bettors handbook for strategy tips.

Get your edge with ScoresAndStats — where smart bettors start.

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