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Liberty vs Mercury Picks and Predictions — August 31, 2025
The New York Liberty will look to overcome health concerns and keep their playoff positioning intact as they visit the Phoenix Mercury on Saturday night. The Liberty (24-15) are in a tight race with the Mercury (24-14) and Atlanta Dream for home-court advantage in the first round of the WNBA playoffs.
More Than Just Picks — It’s Strategy
Learn while you win
Oddsmakers have Phoenix as a slight favorite, with the total set at 162.
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New York Can Win If…
Breanna Stewart and the supporting cast step up in the absence of Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, and Natasha Cloud. Stewart has been playing under a minutes restriction since returning from injury, but her contributions have still been impactful. The Liberty are undefeated when their stars play together, which highlights how critical their health is.
“You’ve got probably two top-20 players in the world, right?” said Mercury coach Nate Tibbetts, referring to Ionescu and Stewart.
If the Liberty can limit the impact of Alyssa Thomas and continue playing through Stewart’s leadership, they have the firepower to compete with Phoenix.
Phoenix Can Win If…
Alyssa Thomas continues her historic play and the defense stays active. Thomas has been a triple-double machine, collecting seven on the season and flirting with several more in previous meetings with New York.
“We go as she goes,” Mercury guard Kahleah Copper said about Thomas. “She gets us going. She’s literally everything for us.”
Copper has also been a key contributor, scoring 28 points in a win over the Chicago Sky on Thursday. If Phoenix can continue to generate steals and blocks like they did in that game, they’ll be well-positioned to take control of this matchup.
Key WNBA Betting Trends
| Category | Liberty | Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-15 | 24-14 |
| Last 5 Games | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Points Per Game | 84.4 | 82.3 |
| Opponent PPG | 80.2 | 80.8 |
| ATS Record (2024) | 5-5 | 6-4 |
The Lean
Pick: Mercury -1
Projected Final Score: Mercury 85, Liberty 82
Despite the Liberty’s star power, Phoenix’s defense and Alyssa Thomas’ MVP-level play are too much to overcome. The Mercury have been on a roll, and with their improved defense and Copper’s scoring, they should edge out the Liberty in this pivotal matchup.
Stay updated on all WNBA playoff race matchups in our WNBA betting hub.
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