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Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Picks and Predictions – December 23, 2025
The Dallas Mavericks head to Ball Arena for a Western Conference showdown with the Denver Nuggets on Saturday night. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET in a high-profile matchup featuring two of the West’s top offenses and MVP-level stars in Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic.
Dallas has dropped three of its last four, struggling to contain opponents on the glass and in transition. Denver remains dominant at home but has looked vulnerable against elite perimeter scorers — something the Mavs have plenty of. This has all the makings of a close, high-scoring affair.
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Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Odds
These are the current betting lines. Stay on top of movement with the latest NBA odds.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | +165 | +4.5 (-110) | O 234.5 (-110) |
| Denver Nuggets | -195 | -4.5 (-110) | U 234.5 (-110) |
Dallas Mavericks Betting Form
Dallas continues to lean heavily on Luka Doncic, who’s putting up massive usage numbers while trying to carry an inconsistent supporting cast. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Kyrie Irving (if active) offer scoring punch, but the Mavs’ defensive metrics are bottom-10 in rebounding rate and transition points allowed.
They’re 6-10 ATS in their last 16 and allow opponents to shoot over 49% from the field — not ideal when facing one of the league’s most efficient offenses. Keep an eye on the Dallas Mavericks injury report for Kyrie’s status, which could swing the line.
Denver Nuggets Betting Form
The Denver Nuggets remain elite at home, where they’re 13-3 SU and shoot over 52% from the floor. Nikola Jokic is a nightly triple-double threat and continues to dominate against teams lacking strong interior defense — which Dallas definitely fits.
Jamal Murray’s return has stabilized the backcourt, and Michael Porter Jr. is heating up from deep. Denver has covered four straight at home and ranks top 5 in assist-to-turnover ratio. However, bench production remains a wild card, and second-unit slippage has cost them a few covers recently.
Check the Denver Nuggets injury report to confirm rotation availability.
Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Matchup Breakdown
This matchup is about offensive tempo vs defensive discipline. Dallas wants to isolate and shoot early in the clock, while Denver will carve teams up with ball movement and inside-out action. Jokic vs the Mavs’ frontcourt is the biggest mismatch on the floor.
Key matchup insights:
- Mavs allow the 4th-most points in the paint
- Nuggets lead the league in eFG% at home
- Dallas ranks bottom 5 in defensive rebounding %
- Over is 7-3 in last 10 meetings between these teams
If you’re looking to reduce risk or capitalize on momentum swings, consider using a hedge bet strategy or explore alternate total points for tighter betting windows.
Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Predictions and Best Bets
Denver has the edge — no question. They’re at home, fully healthy, and facing a Mavericks team that’s been leaking points and missing interior resistance. Still, the spread is tight, and Luka Doncic has a history of big games in Denver.
That said, the total is where the value lies. Both teams play efficiently, and with limited rim protection on Dallas’ end, Jokic should orchestrate high-percentage looks all night. This projects as a fast-paced, high-efficiency shootout.
Best Bet: Over 234.5 (-110).
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