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Vikings vs Bears Picks and Predictions — September 8, 2025 (MNF)
Monday Night Football closes out Week 1 with a primetime NFC North clash as the Chicago Bears host the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field. Both franchises enter a new era under young quarterbacks—Caleb Williams for Chicago and J.J. McCarthy for Minnesota—making this a marquee test of two top draft picks.
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The Bears are looking to rebound from last season’s struggles with a revamped offensive line and new playmakers, while the Vikings aim to defend their division crown after finishing 14-3 in 2024.
Opening odds: Bears -2.5 (spread), Vikings +120 (moneyline), Total 44.5 points.
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Bears Can Win If…
Chicago’s defense under new coordinator Dennis Allen must rattle rookie J.J. McCarthy with disguised looks and heavy pressure. Caleb Williams, meanwhile, has shown he can handle Minnesota’s blitz-heavy scheme, throwing three touchdowns with no picks against the Vikings last season.
The Bears’ front office invested heavily in protection, trading for guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson and signing center Drew Dalman. Add top-10 draft picks Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland to an already improving arsenal, and Williams has more weapons at his disposal than in his rookie year.
“Our guys have to be open-minded … we’re going to get hit in the teeth a couple times. It’s the nature of doing business with this crew,” head coach Ben Johnson said of preparing for Brian Flores’ defense.
If Williams stays poised behind the new line, Chicago’s offense can dictate the game.
Vikings Can Win If…
Minnesota tied for the NFL lead in takeaways last season and bolstered its defensive front with Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen. That pressure will be crucial against a Bears line still finding chemistry.
McCarthy, making his first career start, leans on All-Pro Justin Jefferson, who looks to rebound after being bottled up by Chicago last year. With Jordan Addison suspended, veteran Adam Thielen could play a key role in the passing game.
“At the end of the day, I know (coaches) will put me in a great position and my teammates … will do everything they can to make sure we are successful every play,” McCarthy said.
If Minnesota forces turnovers and McCarthy limits mistakes, the Vikings have a path to a road upset.
Key NFL Betting Trends
| Category | Bears | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Record | 7-10 (missed playoffs) | 14-3 (NFC North champs) |
| QB Outlook | Caleb Williams (Year 2) | J.J. McCarthy (debut) |
| PPG Scored (2024) | 20.3 | 25.7 |
| PPG Allowed (2024) | 24.5 | 18.6 |
| Series History | Bears 63-64-2 all-time | Vikings lead 2-1 since 2023 |
The Lean
Model Projection: Bears 23, Vikings 20
Pick: Bears -2.5
Total Lean: Under 44.5
Both defenses should control stretches of this game, with Flores’ pressure and Allen’s schemes testing young quarterbacks. Williams’ extra year of experience and Chicago’s roster upgrades give the Bears a slight edge at home. For more breakdowns like this, head to our NFL Betting Predictions hub.
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