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Indiana vs Illinois Picks and Predictions — September 20, 2025
The Indiana Hoosiers and Illinois Fighting Illini clash Saturday night in Bloomington in what may be their most significant matchup in program history. No. 19 Indiana (3-0) is off to a blazing start under Curt Cignetti, while No. 9 Illinois (3-0) has methodically built itself into a Big Ten contender under Bret Bielema. Both teams enter unbeaten, and both quarterbacks — Fernando Mendoza for Indiana and Luke Altmyer for Illinois — are completing over 70 percent of their passes.
Ride the Momentum
Smart bets, hot streaks
Opening odds:
- Spread: Illinois −6.5
- Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
- Moneyline: Illinois favored
Want expert Big Ten betting breakdowns every week? Check our NCAAF Picks Hub →
Indiana Can Win If…
- Fernando Mendoza stays sharp. The Cal transfer has completed 72.4% of passes for 708 yards and 9 TDs with no interceptions, but he’ll be without RB Lee Beebe Jr. for the rest of the year.
- The line of scrimmage holds up. Indiana’s rebuilt trenches, anchored by Notre Dame transfer Pat Coogan and All-America end Mikail Kamara, have dominated early.
- They avoid mistakes. Cignetti’s group has thrived by minimizing penalties and turnovers, and that discipline is key against a Top 10 opponent.
“Line of scrimmage, turnover ratio, battle of explosives, being good in critical situations. Never really has changed,” Cignetti said.
Illinois Can Win If…
- Luke Altmyer continues his clean play. He’s completed 71.8% of passes for 709 yards and 8 TDs without a pick.
- They start faster. Illinois struggled early last week against Western Michigan before turning a 10-0 halftime lead into a 38-0 rout. Against Indiana, a slow start could be costly.
- The defense clamps down in the red zone. Indiana has been efficient offensively, but limiting TDs to FGs could be the difference.
“You can have a good offense and defense, but when your special teams fall in line, that’s when you know you have it,” Bielema said.
Key NCAAF Betting Trends
| Category | Indiana Hoosiers | Illinois Fighting Illini |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 (No. 19 AP) | 3-0 (No. 9 AP) |
| QB Production | Mendoza: 708 yds, 9 TD, 0 INT | Altmyer: 709 yds, 8 TD, 0 INT |
| Rushing Attack | Beebe Jr. (out, knee injury) | Balanced ground game |
| Defense | Dominant at LOS so far | Shutout WMU last week |
| Discipline | Few penalties, no turnovers | Similar profile under Bielema |
The Lean
Pick: Illinois −6.5
Projected Final Score: Illinois 28, Indiana 20
Total Lean: Under 52.5
Reasoning: Both QBs are efficient, but Illinois has the stronger run game and deeper roster. Indiana losing Beebe Jr. takes away offensive balance, and while Cignetti’s line play has been sharp, Illinois’ defense is built for this type of grind. Expect Illinois to control possession and cover in a lower-scoring battle.
Get full Big Ten coverage in our NCAAF Betting Predictions hub.
Best Bet Box
| Best Bet Category | Selection |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Illinois −6.5 |
| Confidence Rating | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Final Score | Illinois 28, Indiana 20 |
| Total Lean | Under 52.5 |
