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Game Preview Louisville Cardinals @ SMU Mustangs
The SMU Mustangs return from their second bye week of the season with a clear objective: win out and keep their ACC Championship hopes alive. At 7-3 overall and 5-1 in conference play, SMU sits among a tight cluster of one-loss ACC contenders. To reach the title game, the Mustangs must defeat Louisville and Cal while hoping for favorable outcomes from other conference matchups.
Their opponent, the Louisville Cardinals, enters at 7-3 and still displays one of the conference’s most efficient defenses. Louisville has lost three straight by a combined seven points, reinforcing the idea that their performance remains competitive despite the record. The Cardinals’ strong defensive metrics and explosive offensive playmakers make this a complex matchup for SMU.
SMU’s 45-13 win over Boston College before the bye week reaffirmed their offensive ceiling. Kevin Jennings surpassed 325 passing yards, and the Mustangs generated over 570 total yards. Louisville, meanwhile, held Clemson to only 308 total yards in a narrow loss that came down to missed kicks and penalties. Bettors can explore matchups and market trends using NCAAF odds and the full NCAAF teams directory.
To better understand the structure of this matchup, bettors can reference analytical guides such as what does the spread mean, how betting odds work, or alternate total points.
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Odds and Key Information
Louisville Moneyline: +125
SMU Moneyline: -150
Spread: SMU -3.0 / Louisville +3.0
Total: 53.0
Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
Kickoff: Saturday, November 22, 12:00 p.m. ET
Broadcast: ESPN2
Complementary market strategies can be explored with guides like teaser bets or parlay construction.
Louisville Outlook
Louisville’s recent 20-19 loss to Clemson underscores the thin margins that have defined their season. They outgained Clemson both on the ground and through the air but undermined themselves with missed field goals, penalties, and key turnovers. Louisville’s turnover issues remain a concern: the Cardinals have 15 giveaways, and 70 points allowed have directly resulted from opponent takeaways.
Despite that, Louisville possesses strong positional metrics. With 20 sacks, they rank inside the national top 20, and their balanced offensive approach has yielded 315 points, good for 38th nationally. Quarterback Miller Moss provides reliable production with 2,344 passing yards, while Chris Bell’s 871 receiving yards and 67 receptions enable Louisville to sustain drives and create explosive gains.
Defensively, Louisville ranks as one of the ACC’s best units, allowing just 297.9 yards per game. Their structure emphasizes gap discipline and rally tackling, which will be key against SMU’s motion-heavy scheme. Bettors analyzing this matchup through conceptual frameworks such as handicap betting or winning margin meaning will find value in the Cardinals’ defensive consistency.
Louisville Injury Report
D’Angelo Hutchinson (DB) – Questionable
Travis Egan (QB) – Questionable
Isaac Brown (RB) – Questionable
Trent Carter (LB) – Questionable
Shammai Gates (RB) – Questionable
Jamarice Wilder (RB) – Questionable
Tyler Folmar (OL) – Questionable
SMU Outlook
SMU’s offensive eruption in their 45-13 win over Boston College highlighted their explosive potential. Kevin Jennings threw for 352 yards and three touchdowns, while TJ Harden delivered a dominant rushing performance with 223 yards. SMU’s passing offense ranks inside the national top 20, and Jennings stands among the top 15 quarterbacks nationally in yardage.
Defensively, the Mustangs excel at creating pressure, ranking fourth in sacks with 33. Their 17 interceptions add another layer to their disruption profile. With a balanced structure and strong home record, SMU’s statistical profile aligns with successful home favorite trends. Bettors analyzing matchup rhythm may find relevance in resources such as prop bet mechanics, sports betting for beginners, or live betting strategy.
SMU’s receiving corps is diverse, with Jordan Hudson and Romello Brinson providing stretch-play capability. Their ability to create separation will be tested against Louisville’s disciplined coverage unit.
SMU Injury Report
Aakil Washington (DE) – Questionable
Jonathan Jefferson (DT) – Questionable
Justin Medlock (LB) – Questionable
Cameron Robertson (DE) – Questionable
La’Modrick Spencer (CB) – Questionable
Alex Woods (OL) – Questionable
Henry Douglass (OL) – Questionable
Marcellus Barnes Jr. (CB) – Questionable
James Larson (TE) – Questionable
Will Locke (TE) – Questionable
Zadian Gentry (DB) – Questionable
Kyle Ferm (LB) – Questionable
Key Matchup Table
| Factor | Edge |
|---|---|
| Passing Efficiency | SMU |
| Rushing Consistency | Louisville |
| Defensive Pressure | SMU |
| Turnover Margin Potential | SMU |
| Road Performance | Louisville |
| Red Zone Stability | SMU |
Betting Trends
Louisville is 4-0 straight up and ATS in its last four road games.
Louisville is 23-6 to the over in games with totals at or above 50 points.
SMU is 26-4 straight up as a favorite in its last 30 games.
SMU is 18-3 straight up at home in its last 21.
SMU is 10-0 straight up after a loss in its last ten.
For broader strategic alignment, bettors may consult guides such as hedge betting, how betting odds work, or the foundational NFL expert betting guide.
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Predictions
Based on matchup structure and recent performance, SMU’s combination of explosive passing, pressure defense, and home-field advantage provides a slight edge. However, Louisville’s undefeated road record and strong ATS form elevate the probability of a competitive outcome.
The total aligns with offensive efficiency on both sides, and pace metrics suggest opportunities for scoring through chunk plays.
Projected Score: Louisville 28, SMU 27
Spread Pick: Louisville +3.0
Total Lean: Over 53.0
Why You Need Expert Picks
Late-season ACC matchups introduce volatility through injuries, pressure scenarios, and narrow spreads. Bettors seeking a consistent analytical advantage can rely on the verified handicappers featured in the Handicappers Leaderboard. Supporting resources such as alternate total points, sports betting strategies, and prop bet analysis offer additional tools for managing risk and identifying value.
