Texas Longhorns vs Vanderbilt Commodores Picks and Predictions November 1st 2025

Game Preview: Texas vs Vanderbilt

The Texas Longhorns return home after a month-long road swing to face the Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday in a pivotal SEC matchup with major College Football Playoff implications.

Texas (6-2, 3-1 SEC) pulled off a dramatic 45-38 overtime victory at Mississippi State last week, but the win came at a cost. Quarterback Arch Manning suffered a concussion on the first snap of overtime, leaving his status uncertain for this week’s home clash. Backup Matthew Caldwell delivered the game-winning touchdown pass to Emmett Mosley V, sealing the comeback from 17 points down.

If Manning is unavailable, Caldwell will make his first Texas start. Coach Steve Sarkisian praised his composure and readiness, noting that “he’s played well every time that we’ve put him in the game.” Texas has won three straight but continues to seek cleaner execution and rhythm on offense.

Vanderbilt (7-1, 3-1 SEC) comes in ranked No. 9 and riding a surge of confidence after consecutive wins over ranked opponents, including last week’s 17-10 victory over Missouri. Quarterback Diego Pavia continues to headline the Commodores’ offense and Heisman chatter despite being limited statistically in that contest.

This marks just the second-ever trip to Austin for Vanderbilt, with the previous meeting in 1903. The Commodores lead the all-time series 8-4-1, but Texas edged them 27-24 last year in Nashville.

Line Movement and Odds

Texas opened as a 3.5-point home favorite, though the line could shift based on Arch Manning’s availability. The total sits around 51.5 after early action on the under due to both defenses’ recent consistency.

Stay updated on spread movement and betting percentages through the college football odds board and weekly insights on the NCAAF picks page.

Texas Longhorns Outlook

The Texas Longhorns have battled inconsistency despite a 6-2 start. Manning’s concussion adds uncertainty to a team that’s won three straight by one score each. Before the injury, he recorded his best collegiate game with 346 passing yards, three touchdowns, and one rushing score.

If Matthew Caldwell starts, Texas may lean more on its ground attack and defense. Running back C.J. Baxter (682 yards, 8 TDs) remains the offensive cornerstone. Wideouts Xavier Worthy and Emmett Mosley V provide reliable downfield threats, combining for over 1,200 receiving yards and 10 scores.

Defensively, Texas remains top-25 nationally in sacks and rushing yards allowed per game. The unit tightened late against Mississippi State, holding opponents to 19.6 points per game during their current win streak.

Texas Longhorns Injury Report

• Arch Manning (QB) – Questionable (Concussion Protocol)
• Jonathon Brooks (RB) – Probable (Ankle)
• Quinn Ewers (QB) – Out (Shoulder)
• Jaden Hullaby (LB) – Questionable (Undisclosed)

Vanderbilt Commodores Outlook

The Vanderbilt Commodores are one of the SEC’s biggest surprises, opening 7-1 for the first time since 1941. Coach Clark Lea has emphasized resilience and adaptability, and the Commodores have delivered with two straight wins over top-15 opponents.

Quarterback Diego Pavia remains the team’s emotional leader, responsible for 18 total touchdowns this season. While he managed just 149 total yards in last week’s defensive slugfest, his poise in late-game drives has carried Vanderbilt through multiple close contests.

Running backs Patrick Smith and Sedrick Alexander form a steady tandem behind a veteran offensive line. Defensively, Vanderbilt ranks among the SEC’s top five in scoring defense, allowing only 16.8 points per game. Their ability to generate turnovers—12 interceptions through eight games—has defined their success.

Vanderbilt Commodores Injury Report

• Diego Pavia (QB) – Probable (Ankle)
• Will Sheppard (WR) – Questionable (Shoulder)
• Logan Kyle (WR) – Out (Knee)
• Jayden McGowan (WR) – Questionable (Hamstring)

Key Matchup / Path to Victory

The outcome likely hinges on quarterback play. If Arch Manning is cleared, Texas’ vertical passing attack could stretch Vanderbilt’s secondary and create scoring opportunities. Should Caldwell start, expect the Longhorns to rely heavily on their run game and defense to manage the clock.

For Vanderbilt, limiting turnovers and controlling tempo will be critical. Pavia’s dual-threat ability must challenge Texas’ linebackers and create short-yardage conversions. If the Commodores’ defense maintains red-zone discipline, they could pull off another ranked upset.

Betting Trends

• Texas is 11-2 straight up in its last 13 home games.
• The Longhorns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs SEC opponents.
• Vanderbilt is 7-1 straight up in its last eight games.
• The Commodores are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
• The under is 6-2 in Vanderbilt’s last eight SEC contests.

Prediction

Vanderbilt’s defensive strength and recent momentum make this a tricky matchup for Texas, particularly if Manning remains sidelined. However, Texas’ home-field edge and rushing depth should tilt the game late. Expect a physical, lower-scoring affair with playoff stakes attached.

Projected Score: Texas 27, Vanderbilt 23
Best Bet: Vanderbilt +3.5
Total Lean: Under 51.5

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