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Tulane Green Wave vs North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview
The Tulane Green Wave host the North Texas Mean Green in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans. Both teams enter with strong records, Tulane at 10-2 and North Texas at 11-1, making this a pivotal clash for the Group of 5 CFP bid. Bettors must weigh Tulane’s home dominance against North Texas’ explosive offense led by Drew Mestemaker and Caleb Hawkins.
Line Movement and Odds
- North Texas MoneyLine: -137
- Tulane MoneyLine: +114
- North Texas Spread: -2.5 (-115)
- Tulane Spread: +2.5 (-106)
- Total Over 66.5 (-110)
- Total Under 66.5 (-110)
North Texas opened as slight favorites. See full NCAAF odds for market movement.
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Matchup Breakdown
North Texas Mean Green Outlook
North Texas defeated Temple 52-25 behind Drew Mestemaker’s 366 passing yards and Caleb Hawkins’ 241 rushing yards. Mestemaker set an American freshman record with 3,835 passing yards, while Hawkins leads the FBS with 23 rushing touchdowns. Wyatt Young adds 1,203 receiving yards. The Mean Green rank first nationally in points scored (561) and second in passing yards (3,898). Their balanced attack and turnover creation make them dangerous.
Tulane Green Wave Outlook
Tulane shut out Charlotte 27-0 with 312 passing yards and 151 rushing yards. Jake Retzlaff has thrown for 2,717 yards and 14 touchdowns, while Javin Gordon adds 479 rushing yards. Tulane’s defense ranks 13th nationally in sacks and interceptions, showing disruptive ability. The Green Wave are 6-0 at home this season, relying on defensive pressure and balanced offense to stay competitive.
Key Matchup / Path to Victory
North Texas’ explosive offense vs Tulane’s home-field advantage and defensive disruption. The Mean Green must continue their balanced attack with Mestemaker and Hawkins, while Tulane needs Retzlaff and Gordon to sustain drives and capitalize on turnovers.
Injuries / Availability
North Texas: Shane Whitter (LB), Fatafehi Vailea II (DL), Dylan Shaw (OL) are out. Briceon Hayes (DL), Connor Vaughn (TE), S’Maje Burrell (LB), Saadiq Clements (DL), Jayden Becks (RB), Will Smith (DL), Zhaiylen Scott (DL) are questionable.
Tulane: LeRon Husbands (TE), Ty Thompson (TE), Gerrod Henderson (DE), Dickson Agu (LB) are out. Bryce Bohanon (WR), Donovan Leary (QB), Jack Tchienchou (S), Dorion Jackson (DB), Jayden Lewis (DB), Mitch Hodnett (OL), Cooper Helmke (K) are questionable.
Betting Trends
- North Texas is 27-3 straight up as a favorite in their last 30 games.
- North Texas is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- North Texas is 12-1 straight up in their last 13 games with totals of 50 or more.
- Tulane is 23-3 straight up in their last 26 games with totals of 50 or more.
- Tulane is 23-6 straight up in their last 29 home games.
- North Texas is 6-0 straight up in their last 6 away games.
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Best Bets and Prediction
Projected Final Score: North Texas 35, Tulane 30
- North Texas -2.5 (-115) → Best Bet. Mean Green’s offensive firepower and ATS record suggest they cover.
- Over 66.5 (-110) → Total. Our model projects 65 points, leaning slightly over given both teams’ scoring ability.
North Texas’ balanced attack should secure the win, but Tulane’s home dominance makes this a close contest. Expect a high-scoring battle trending over the total.
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