Vanderbilt Commodores vs Tennessee Volunteers Picks and Predictions November 30th 2024

Vandy Pining to Play Upset Track for No. 8 Tennessee in Nashville

High Stakes for Tennessee in Rivalry Matchup

No. 8 Tennessee (9-2, 5-2 SEC) travels west to Nashville to face Vanderbilt (6-5, 3-4) in the annual in-state rivalry game on Saturday. The stakes are monumental for both programs, with Tennessee seeking to solidify its College Football Playoff hopes and Vanderbilt eyeing a historic win to cap a breakthrough season.

Tennessee’s Playoff Pathway

The Vols head into the matchup riding high after a 56-0 thrashing of UTEP last week. Perhaps more impactful than their own win was the chaos elsewhere in the rankings, with losses by Indiana, Alabama, and Ole Miss opening the door for Tennessee to climb. The Vols moved up four spots in the latest CFP rankings and are poised for a playoff berth with a victory.

Despite being 11-point favorites, Tennessee is wary of the unpredictability of SEC road games. Recent upsets, including Alabama’s loss at Oklahoma and Ole Miss’ stumble at Florida, underscore the dangers of overconfidence.

Vanderbilt’s Season of Upsets

Vanderbilt has already pulled off three victories as double-digit underdogs this season, including wins over Virginia Tech, Alabama, and Kentucky. A win on Saturday would give the Commodores their first winning season since 2013 and provide a signature moment in coach Clark Lea’s tenure.

“The unique thing about this game is that it’s extremely personal to me,” Lea said. “I grew up in this city, I grew up following the program, I played in this program.”

The Battle for Tempo

Tempo will be a critical factor in the game. Tennessee’s fast-paced offense averages 74.1 plays per game, while Vanderbilt aims to slow the game down, averaging 61.0 plays per contest. Controlling the pace is central to Lea’s strategy.

“For us offensively with where our program is right now, possession is the No. 1 priority,” Lea said. “We want to maintain possession of the ball, extend drives, and play a field-position game.”

Vanderbilt’s Keys to Success

The Commodores’ success will hinge on minimizing turnovers and excelling in special teams, where they rank first nationally in SP+ ratings. Quarterback Diego Pavia, despite playing through injuries, remains a dual-threat weapon with 2,029 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and 671 rushing yards this season.

Points may be hard to come by against Tennessee’s stout defense, which ranks fourth nationally in scoring defense (13.09 points per game) and sixth in total defense (284.3 yards per game).

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Tennessee’s Game Plan

Tennessee’s offensive attack centers on its high-powered rushing game led by Dylan Sampson, who has 1,307 yards and 22 touchdowns this season. Sampson has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in seven of eight games against Power 4 opponents.

Defensively, the Vols will focus on pressuring Pavia. Led by Walter Camp player of the year semifinalist James Pearce Jr., Tennessee’s defensive line will look to replicate the disruptive performances LSU and South Carolina produced against Vanderbilt in recent weeks.

Historical Context

Tennessee coach Josh Heupel is undefeated against Lea, with wins in their past three meetings by an average margin of over 30 points. However, Heupel isn’t underestimating the Commodores.

“We have to be at our best on Saturday,” Heupel said. “You’ve got to understand you’re going to get their best, and their best is really good.”

As Tennessee fights to keep its playoff hopes alive and Vanderbilt seeks a season-defining upset, the stage is set for another memorable chapter in this storied rivalry.