Vanderbilt vs Utah State Week 5 Odds, Picks & Preview

Vanderbilt Commodores vs Utah State Aggies Picks and Predictions September 27th 2025

Vanderbilt vs Utah State Week 5 Betting Preview

The Vanderbilt Commodores host the Utah State Aggies Saturday at FirstBank Stadium. Vanderbilt is 4–0 and riding confidence after a 70–21 win over Georgia State. Utah State is 3–1 under coach Bronco Mendenhall, seeking to exceed last year’s win total.

Historically these two programs have not met. Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea has studied Mendenhall’s methods over time, which adds narrative juice to this inaugural matchup.

Line Movement and Odds

Spread: Vanderbilt –22.5 (–110)
Total: 59.5 points
The college football odds page will track movement.
Public betting leans heavy Vanderbilt. Some sharp interest in Utah State +22.5 as value.

Matchup Breakdown

Vanderbilt Commodores

QB Diego Pavia has completed 73.9% of his passes this season, throwing 8 TDs with 2 INTs.
He also contributes as a runner, with 215 yards and a score.
Vanderbilt’s defense is stout, allowing few points, leading in sacks and turnovers forced.

Utah State Aggies

Bryson Barnes leads the Mountain West, passing 982 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 1 interception.
He adds value on the ground with 197 yards and 6 touchdowns.
If his passing attack is slowed, the Aggies must lean on their run game and tempo.

Key battle
Vanderbilt’s defensive front vs Barnes’s pocket time. If Vanderbilt can control the line and pressure the QB, Utah State will struggle to sustain drives. Barnes must make quick reads and avoid turnovers.

Injuries and Conditions

Vanderbilt Commodores

No major injury reports currently surfaced.

Utah State Aggies

No major injury reports public.

Kickoff: 12:45 p.m. ET (SEC Network). Stadium conditions expected to be typical — clear evening in Nashville.

Best Bets and Prediction

Projected score: Vanderbilt 40, Utah State 23

Best bet: Vanderbilt –22.5
Secondary lean: Over 59.5

Vanderbilt’s balanced offense and strong defense should dominate. The over holds appeal if Utah State stays aggressive.