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Virginia Cavaliers vs Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview
The Virginia Cavaliers face the Duke Blue Devils in the ACC Championship Game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. Virginia seeks its first outright ACC football title, while Duke aims to return to conference glory for the first time since 1989. Bettors must weigh Virginia’s balanced offense and defense against Duke’s explosive passing attack led by Darian Mensah.
Line Movement and Odds
- Duke MoneyLine: +139
- Virginia MoneyLine: -167
- Duke Spread: +3.5 (-115)
- Virginia Spread: -3.5 (-105)
- Total Over 57.5 (-107)
- Total Under 57.5 (-113)
Virginia opened as slight favorites. See full NCAAF odds for market movement.
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Matchup Breakdown
Duke Blue Devils Outlook
Duke defeated Wake Forest 49-32 behind Darian Mensah’s 268 passing yards. Mensah leads the ACC with 3,450 passing yards and 28 touchdowns. Nate Sheppard adds 865 rushing yards and nine scores. Duke’s defense ranks 6th in fumbles recovered and 12th in interceptions, showing opportunistic playmaking. The Blue Devils must protect the ball and rely on Mensah’s arm to stay competitive.
Virginia Cavaliers Outlook
Virginia topped Virginia Tech 27-7 with a dominant defensive effort. Chandler Morris has thrown for 2,586 yards and 14 touchdowns, while J’Mari Taylor has rushed for 997 yards and 14 scores. The Cavaliers rank third in the ACC in both total offense (433.2 yards per game) and total defense (311.7). Their balance and ability to force turnovers make them strong contenders for the ACC crown.
Key Matchup / Path to Victory
Duke’s passing attack vs Virginia’s balanced offense and defense. The Blue Devils must rely on Mensah’s efficiency and turnover creation, while Virginia needs Morris and Taylor to control tempo and sustain drives.
Injuries / Availability
Duke: Nick Morris Jr. (LB), Andrel Anthony (WR), Terry Moore (S), Peyton Jones (RB), Micah Sahakian (OL), Landan Callahan (CB), Vontae Floyd (CB), Nathan Kutufaris (OL), Evan Scott (OL) are questionable. Elliott Schaper (LB) is out.
Virginia: Monroe Mills (OL), Makilan Thomas (OL), Jayden Thomas (WR), Xavier Brown (RB), Dakota Twitty (TE), Grady Brosterhous (QB), Kam Robinson (LB), Ja’Maric Morris (DB), Noah Vaughn (RB) are out. Jam Jackson (CB), Andre Greene Jr. (WR), Dre Walker (CB) are questionable.
Betting Trends
- Duke is 4-0 on the Over/Under as an underdog in their last 4 games.
- Duke is 4-0 on the Over/Under in away games this season.
- Duke is 12-7 ATS as an underdog in their last 19 games.
- Virginia is 8-0 straight up in games with totals of 50 or more this season.
- Virginia is 9-1 straight up overall this season.
- Virginia is 6-1 straight up in home games this season.
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Best Bets and Prediction
Projected Final Score: Virginia 31, Duke 28
- Duke +3.5 (-115) → Best Bet. Blue Devils’ ATS record as underdogs and offensive firepower suggest they can cover.
- Over 57.5 (-107) → Total. Our model projects 59 points, leaning over given Duke’s offensive pace and Virginia’s scoring balance.
Virginia’s balanced attack should secure the win, but Duke’s passing game makes them a strong play to cover. Expect a competitive, high-scoring contest trending over the total.
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