Commanders vs Falcons NFL Week 4 Preview

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders September 28th 2025

The Washington Commanders are set to take on the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season. The game will be held at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. This matchup will air on CBS at 1:00 PM on Sunday, September 28, 2025.

The Commanders, with a record of 2-1-0, will look to secure their first road win of the season. On the other side, the Falcons hold a 1-2-0 record and aim to improve their home performance. The weather forecast indicates a clear sky, but the retractable roof at the stadium means weather will not impact the game.

Commanders vs Falcons Key Information

Sport: NFL
Teams: Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025
Betting Odds: Commanders Moneyline -123, Falcons Moneyline +103, Commanders Spread -1.5 (-110), Falcons Spread +1.5 (-110), Total Over 45.5 (-109), Total Under 45.5 (-112)

The Commanders Can Win If…

The Washington Commanders showed strong performance in their recent game against the Las Vegas Raiders, winning 41-24. Marcus Mariota led the charge with 207 passing yards and a touchdown. Jeremy McNichols added to the ground game with 78 rushing yards and a touchdown.

Washington’s offense ranks high in rushing yards, holding the 3rd spot from last season. Their ability to control the game on the ground is a key factor. The Commanders’ third-down conversion rate is also impressive, ranked 6th, which helps sustain drives and keep the defense fresh.

The Commanders’ defense is another strength, with 43 sacks last season, ranking 7th. Dorance Armstrong and Von Miller are key players, each recording a sack in the last game. With a strong pass rush and solid defensive play, Washington can disrupt the opposing team’s offense.

The Falcons Can Win If…

The Atlanta Falcons are ready to bounce back after a tough 30-0 loss to the Carolina Panthers. Despite the score, the Falcons had more first downs and passing yards than the Panthers. Bijan Robinson led with 72 rushing yards, and Drake London added 55 receiving yards, showing their potential for big plays.

The Falcons’ offense has been strong, ranking 5th in passing yards last season. Their rushing game is solid too, with Bijan Robinson ranking 5th in the league for rushing yards this season. With these stats, the Falcons have the tools to put up points and control the game.

Injuries have hit the Falcons, but key players like Michael Penix Jr. and Bijan Robinson are set to lead the charge. Penix is projected to throw for over 229 yards, while Robinson is expected to gain 81 rushing yards. If the Falcons can limit turnovers, they have a good chance of securing a win at home.

The Lean

The Washington Commanders are favored by 1.5 points against the Atlanta Falcons. The Commanders have a strong record against the spread as favorites, going 11-0 in their last 11 games. Given this trend and their offensive strength, picking the Commanders to cover the spread is a solid choice. The projected score is Commanders 27, Falcons 21.

The total for the game is set at 45.5 points. The Commanders have hit the over in 7 of their last 12 games. Their offense ranks 5th in scoring, which suggests they can put up points. The Falcons’ defense ranks 22nd in opponent scoring. Given these factors, taking the over is recommended. The projected total is 48 points.

Commanders vs Falcons Preview

The Washington Commanders (2-1) visit the Atlanta Falcons (1-2) on Sunday in a matchup filled with storylines. Washington head coach Dan Quinn returns to his old home, where he went 43-42 in six seasons before being dismissed in 2020.

The Commanders could also bring back Marcus Mariota to face his former team. Mariota started 13 games for Atlanta in 2022 and led Washington to a 41-24 win over Las Vegas in Week 3, throwing for 207 yards with two total touchdowns. Starter Jayden Daniels (knee) is pushing to return but remains questionable.

Atlanta looks to rebound after being shut out 30-0 by Carolina, its first scoreless game in four years. Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. threw for a career-low passer rating of 40.5, and the Falcons parted ways with their wide receivers coach to spark change.

Injury Report

Washington wideout Terry McLaurin (quad) is being evaluated by a specialist and could miss time. Noah Brown (groin), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (knee), Percy Butler (hip), and John Bates (calf/groin) did not practice. Corner Trey Amos (calf) was limited.

Atlanta listed Kyle Pitts (toe), Jamal Agnew (groin), Casey Washington (concussion), and James Pearce Jr. (groin) as limited. KhaDarel Hodge (groin), A.J. Terrell (hamstring), and Nathan Carter (hamstring) did not practice.

Betting Results and Trends

The Commanders opened as slight road favorites on the NFL odds page. Washington is 2-1 ATS with back-to-back Overs, while Atlanta is 1-2 ATS, trending Under after scoring only 15.7 points per game. Washington has won four straight in the series, including two covers in Atlanta.

What It Means Moving Forward

If Daniels returns, Washington has a chance to keep pace in the NFC East. If Mariota starts, his mobility adds a wrinkle against his former team. Atlanta must find answers offensively to avoid a 1-3 hole, starting with Penix’s execution in the red zone.

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Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders Picks and Predictions September 28th 2025