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Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals Betting Preview
Cincinnati enters Week 14 with faint postseason hopes but renewed momentum. Joe Burrow returned from a turf-toe setback and delivered 261 yards and two touchdowns in a 32-14 win over Baltimore. His December and January record (13-3) remains one of the league’s strongest indicators of late-season efficiency. Ja’Marr Chase has maintained WR1 production with at least six receptions in six of his past seven games, and Chase Brown continues a six-game streak of 100-plus scrimmage yards. Tee Higgins’ potential return would restore Cincinnati’s full receiving trio.
Buffalo presents a different challenge. The Bills own an 8-4 record and a 5-1 home mark behind the league’s top pass defense. Their 23-0 second-half surge against Pittsburgh highlighted their ability to close games through defensive structure and Josh Allen’s dual-threat control. Allen’s December record (12-1 across three seasons) reinforces Buffalo’s seasonal profile: stable tempo, low turnover risk, and strong red-zone sequencing. James Cook anchors the league’s No. 1 rushing attack after producing 177 scrimmage yards last week.
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Line Movement and Odds
Buffalo opened -5.5 and has held firm as early money backed the home side’s defensive matchup edge. Cincinnati sits +5.5 with interest tied to Burrow’s December form and recent offensive stability.
The total opened 53 and remains unchanged. Market splits favor the over due to both teams ranking top-10 in scoring and explosive-play rate.
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Matchup Breakdown
Cincinnati’s path relies on tempo control and intermediate efficiency. Burrow identified Buffalo’s disguised coverages as the key challenge, but the Bengals’ spacing improves significantly when Higgins is active. Their short-area passing has expanded with Brown’s involvement, creating an outlet that stabilizes early-down sequencing. Cincinnati has also been productive in third-down conversion, which keeps their offense balanced despite a thin defensive front.
The Bills bring the league’s top pass defense and a diversified rushing identity built around Cook’s acceleration. Their defensive structure forces quarterbacks into late-clock decisions, and they create drive-ending turnovers through disciplined rotations. Allen’s cadence and communication advantages at home diminish opponent pass-rush timing. Buffalo’s scoring consistency has made them one of the league’s most stable home teams, with a 7-1 stretch in their last eight at Highmark Stadium.
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Injuries and Conditions
Cincinnati Bengals
Trey Hendrickson, hip/pelvis, doubtful
Tee Higgins, concussion, questionable
Marco Wilson, hamstring, out
Cam Sample, oblique, questionable
Jermaine Burton, ankle, questionable
Brian Asamoah II, knee, out
Cam Taylor-Britt, foot, out
Cordell Volson, undisclosed, out
Shaka Heyward, fibula, out
Erick All Jr., knee, out
Matt Lee, knee, out
See full Bengals updates on their team page.
Buffalo Bills
Joey Bosa, hamstring, questionable
Curtis Samuel, elbow/knee, out
Dion Dawkins, concussion, questionable
Mecole Hardman, calf, out
Ed Oliver, bicep, out
Taylor Rapp, knee, out
Damar Hamlin, pectoral, out
Tyler Bass, hip/groin, out
Michael Hoecht, Achilles, out
Joshua Palmer, ankle, questionable
Spencer Brown, shoulder, questionable
Terrel Bernard, elbow, questionable
Outdoor venue, cold conditions, overcast.
Latest Betting Trends
Bengals O/U after win: 3-0
Bengals ATS as underdog: 4-2
Bills SU home games: 7-1
Bills SU after loss: 3-0
Bills ATS after loss: 3-0
Bills O/U home games: 5-2
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Best Bets and Prediction
Buffalo’s defensive structure and red-zone stability give them the clearest edge, but Cincinnati has outperformed spreads as a road underdog. With Higgins trending toward availability and Burrow thriving in late-season environments, Cincinnati projects to stay within the number.
Projected Score: Bills 28, Bengals 26
Best Bet: Bengals +5.5
Secondary Lean: Over 53
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