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Packers vs Commanders Picks and Predictions — September 11, 2025
The Green Bay Packers look to ride the momentum of Micah Parsons’ Lambeau debut when they host the Washington Commanders on Thursday Night Football. Both teams opened 1-0 with convincing defensive wins, but only one can keep that unbeaten streak alive in Week 2.
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Opening Odds: Packers -3, Commanders +3, Total 44.5
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The Packers Can Win If…
Green Bay’s defense dominated Detroit in Week 1, holding the Lions to 246 total yards and keeping them out of the end zone until the final minute. Parsons added a sack, while the unit piled up nine tackles for loss and four sacks overall.
Quarterback Jordan Love was efficient, completing 16 of 22 passes for 188 yards and two TDs. Josh Jacobs chipped in 66 rushing yards, giving balance to the offense.
If the defense continues to create chaos up front while Love maintains efficiency spreading the ball around, the Packers can secure another statement win.
The Commanders Can Win If…
Washington’s rebuilt defense held the Giants to 231 yards in a 21-6 victory, while rookie QB Jayden Daniels looked poised with 233 passing yards, a TD, and 68 rushing yards.
New arrival Deebo Samuel added 96 scrimmage yards and a rushing TD, while rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt contributed 82 yards and a score. Washington finished with 220 rushing yards at 6.9 per carry, showing a balanced attack.
If Daniels’ mobility extends plays and the running game replicates Week 1, the Commanders can challenge Green Bay’s front seven and pull the road upset.
Key NFL Betting Trends
| Category | Commanders | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Record (2025) | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Points For (Week 1) | 21 | 27 |
| Points Allowed | 6 | 13 |
| Total Yards Gained | 432 | 266 |
| Total Yards Allowed | 231 | 246 |
The Lean
Model Projection: Packers 24, Commanders 20
Pick: Packers -3
Total Lean: Under 44.5
Green Bay’s defensive speed with Parsons anchoring the front seven is a difference-maker. Daniels gives Washington versatility, but Lambeau is a tough road test for a rookie QB making his second career start. Expect the Packers’ defense to set the tone again in a physical game.
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