Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills Picks and Predictions November 20th 2025

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Week 12 Betting Preview

Josh Allen is carrying Buffalo again. The reigning MVP enters Week 12 after a historic six-touchdown performance against Tampa Bay, becoming the only quarterback in league history with two games of three passing and three rushing scores. The Bills have won three of four and hit their season-high point total last week.

Buffalo now turns around on a short week and heads to Houston. Allen elevated his play at the right time, but his receiving group is banged up. Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Mecole Hardman Jr., and Dalton Kincaid all missed practice time. Keon Coleman was inactive last week for discipline reasons, and his availability remains uncertain.

Houston sits at 5-5 and has won three of four, but they will play again without C.J. Stroud. Davis Mills will start for the third straight week. Mills has been steady, completing 60.3 percent of his passes across two-plus games with three touchdowns, one interception, and a rushing score.

Houston’s defense is the anchor. The Texans lead the NFL in scoring defense and total defense, ranking top three against the run. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. combine for 17 sacks.

These teams met last season in Houston, when Ka’imi Fairbairn hit a 59-yard walk-off field goal to beat Buffalo 23-20.

For more context across the slate, check today’s NFL previews

Line Movement and Odds

The Bills opened at –6 with Texans +6. Houston took early sharp interest as injury reports leaned toward multiple missing Bills pass-catchers. The number has bounced between –5.5 and –6 throughout the week.

Moneyline opened with Bills –280 and Texans +228.

Total opened at 43.5, with early money leaning under because of Houston’s defense and a Mills-led offense.

Track live changes on the NFL odds

Matchup Breakdown

Buffalo’s offense can win this game on quarterback play alone. Allen leads the league in total touchdowns and ranks top tier in both passing and rushing production. James Cook ranks among the league’s best in rushing yards, and Buffalo ranks near the top in turnovers forced.

Houston wins if their front four dictates tempo. The Texans allow only 16.3 points per game and rank first in total defense. Anderson and Hunter pressure quarterbacks at elite rates. Mills can keep Houston competitive if he avoids turnovers and takes the easy completions.

Key matchup:
Buffalo’s O-line versus Houston’s pass rush. The Bills’ passing game can create explosive plays, but Houston’s pressure rate can flip drives quickly.

For projected outcomes across all games, see today’s NFL picks

Injuries and Conditions

Buffalo Bills

• Khalil Shakir, personal, DNP early week
• Curtis Samuel, elbow and neck, limited
• Mecole Hardman Jr., calf, limited
• Dalton Kincaid, hamstring, DNP last week
• Ed Oliver, biceps, out
• Tyler Bass, hip and groin, out
• Multiple depth defenders ruled out or limited

Full details: Buffalo Bills injury report

Houston Texans

• C.J. Stroud, concussion, out
• Jalen Pitre, concussion, out
• Jamal Hill, hamstring, DNP
• Dalton Schultz, shoulder, full participant
• Nico Collins, ankle, probable
• Several defensive starters remain questionable

Full details: Houston Texans injury report

Best Bets and Prediction

Buffalo has covered three of its last four and has leaned on Allen heavily in road environments. Houston’s defense is elite, but the absence of Stroud limits their scoring ceiling. Mills has been serviceable, but Buffalo’s pressure packages should create enough stalled drives.

Projected Score: Bills 27, Texans 17
Best Bet: Bills –6
Secondary Lean: Under 43.5

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