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Game Preview Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
The Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Houston Texans in an AFC South clash that carries major divisional weight. Jacksonville enters at 5-3 after an overtime win at Las Vegas, while Houston sits at 3-5 and turns to Davis Mills at quarterback in place of the injured C.J. Stroud.
Stroud suffered a concussion in last week’s 18-15 loss to Denver and will sit for at least one week. Backup Mills, who hasn’t started since the 2022 season, takes over an offense ranked 24th in scoring at 21 points per game. The Texans have lost two of three and need sharper execution to stay in the AFC playoff picture.
The Jaguars arrive rejuvenated after snapping a two-game skid. Trevor Lawrence led a balanced attack against the Raiders, using designed runs and short passes to overcome a thin receiving corps. With both teams desperate to solidify footing in the division, Sunday’s matchup at NRG Stadium promises tight, situational football.
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Odds and Key Information
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Spread | Texans -1.5 (-107), Jaguars +1.5 (-114) |
| Moneyline | Texans -122, Jaguars +102 |
| Total (O/U) | 38.0 points |
| Venue | NRG Stadium (Houston, TX) |
| Broadcast | CBS – Sunday, November 9, 1:00 PM ET |
| Weather | Indoor – retractable roof |
Opening odds list Houston as a narrow favorite, reflecting uncertainty around quarterback availability. The total of 38 suggests a defensive battle. Keep updated market movements via the NFL odds and scores board.
Jacksonville Jaguars Outlook
The Jaguars rebounded with a 30-29 overtime win at Las Vegas, rediscovering balance on offense. Trevor Lawrence contributed 220 passing yards and two rushing touchdowns, while Jacksonville piled up 151 rushing yards. The coaching staff’s renewed focus on ground control could carry over against a Texans defense ranked 20th in rushing yards allowed per game.
Lawrence remains the offensive centerpiece with 1,840 passing yards this season, though his receiver corps is banged up. Travis Hunter (knee) landed on injured reserve, while Brian Thomas Jr. and Dyami Brown remain questionable. The front office traded for Jakobi Meyers to bolster depth and flexibility in short-yardage routes.
Defensively, the Jaguars continue to create timely turnovers, ranking in the league’s top half in interceptions. Linebackers Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd anchor a unit that can pressure opposing quarterbacks into mistakes—critical against a backup like Mills. For data-driven betting context, see NFL expert betting guide and alternate total points.
Jaguars Injury Report
Eric Murray (S) – Neck – Out
Jourdan Lewis (CB) – Shoulder – Questionable
Tim Patrick (WR) – Groin – Questionable
Ezra Cleveland (G) – Ankle – Questionable
Dyami Brown (WR) – Concussion – Questionable
Devin Lloyd (LB) – Calf – Questionable
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR) – Ankle – Questionable
Travis Hunter (WR) – Knee – Out
Houston Texans Outlook
Houston’s offense shifts gears with Davis Mills at quarterback. The veteran’s familiarity with the system offers stability, but the unit must overcome inconsistent protection and limited red-zone production. Tight end Dalton Schultz and receiver Nico Collins remain key targets, both recording strong performances against Denver.
Mills has thrown 35 career touchdowns with 25 interceptions, offering short-area accuracy but limited mobility. Expect a conservative script emphasizing play-action and short reads to mitigate Jacksonville’s pressure.
Houston’s defense remains its strength, ranking top five in sacks and interceptions last season. Will Anderson Jr. headlines a disruptive front capable of dictating tempo if the secondary holds up. The Texans’ path to victory relies on controlling possession and avoiding turnovers.
Texans Injury Report
C.J. Stroud (QB) – Concussion – Out
Nick Chubb (RB) – Foot – Out
Harrison Bryant (TE) – Shoulder – Out
Tytus Howard (OT) – Concussion – Questionable
Christian Harris (LB) – Shin – Questionable
Jalen Pitre (S) – Concussion – Out
Will Anderson Jr. (DE) – Quad – Questionable
Ka’imi Fairbairn (K) – Quad – Out
For more on strategic adjustments, explore how to bet on NFL games and what is a teaser bet.
Key Matchup Table
| Key Category | Edge |
|---|---|
| Quarterback Play | Jaguars |
| Rushing Efficiency | Jaguars |
| Turnover Margin | Texans |
| Pass Protection | Even |
| Red-Zone Scoring | Texans |
| Coaching Consistency | Jaguars |
Jacksonville’s advantage hinges on Lawrence’s composure under pressure. Houston’s pass rush can change momentum, but Mills’ limited ceiling could restrict sustained drives. The matchup likely swings on which team finishes red-zone trips with touchdowns rather than field goals.
Betting Trends
- Jaguars are 4-0 to the over in their last four road games.
- Jacksonville is 3-0 straight-up as a favorite in recent contests.
- Texans are 7-2 ATS as favorites in their last nine games.
- Houston is 6-2 ATS with totals of 42 points or fewer in its last eight.
- Jaguars are 5-1 to the over following a win.
- Houston is 5-2-1 to the over when totals are 42 or lower.
For broader insights on line movement and team tendencies, study sports betting strategies to win big and how betting odds work.
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Predictions
Houston’s defense should keep the game close, but Jacksonville’s continuity at quarterback provides the sharper edge. If Lawrence avoids turnovers and capitalizes on field position, the Jaguars’ offense can produce enough to escape with a win.
Projected Score: Jaguars 21, Texans 17
Spread Pick: Jaguars +1.5
Total Lean: Over 38.0
For context on divisional futures and totals movement, review Super Bowl odds and predictions and futures betting pros and cons.
Why You Need Expert Picks
Quarterback uncertainty defines this matchup. Professional handicappers on the Handicappers Leaderboard evaluate line volatility and backup quarterback performance metrics that casual bettors often overlook.
Experts leverage live injury updates, historical divisional splits, and pace analysis—factors crucial to tight spreads like this one. For guidance on maximizing these insights responsibly, visit the responsible gambling guide.
Consistency, data, and discipline drive results—on the field for the Jaguars and Texans, and at the sportsbook for bettors tracking every edge at ScoresAndStats.
